Bust to Boom

Texas Poised for Near Record Crop

By Larry Stalcup

What will likely become the second largest cotton crop in Texas history started off as one that growers feared was just short of a bust.

In mid-summer, some growers were fearful that, because the crop was at least three weeks late, perfect growing conditions would be required to recover.

Stripping cotton in Hale County, TX.

West Texas and the Panhandle got that perfect weather. Temperatures in the 90s in August, September and much of October, was what was needed to generate a regional yield of about 4.89 million bales from a 41-county area.

Central and South Texas, which also had an unusually wet spring and summer, saw the trend continue. "We are looking at 1½ bales as a good crop for many areas, compared to an average yield of 2-2¼, and even three bales, in some areas in Central anSouth Texas in 2006," says Dr. Robert Lemon, Extension cotton specialist in College Station.

Steve Verett, executive vice president of Plains Cotton Growers in Lubbock, says the Panhandle/South Plains region has seen its overall yields reach new plateaus in recent years, thanks to good seed varieties, better irrigation techniques, the Boll Weevil Eradication (BWEP) program and good growing conditions.

"Our yield trend line is significantly jumping," he says, noting that what were typical 1½-2-bale yields are now in the 2½-3½-bale range, with some growers even approaching four bales per acre.

Michael Dolle, Hale County Extension agent, notes that more growers the Plainview region are looking at 20-inch-row production and seeing good results. Yields will be in the three-bale-plus range for many fields, he says.

Overall, Texas production is expected to be about 7.5 million bales, up from 5.8 million in 2006. Yield is projected at 760-770 pound range, up from 679 pounds last year. Compared to the nationwide production of about 18.2 million bales, the PCG 41-county region is expected to produce about 27% of the nation's overall crop.

Comeback Cotton
An above average crop was nearly out of reach as late as mid-July. Growers worried about the cool, wet weather continuing around Lubbock, Plainview and Lamesa. Many acres had to be replanted.

"Our heat units were below the long-term average through much of July," says Verett, noting that weather patterns then switched like night and day. "All my life I've heard that September can make or break a crop. But August is really the month when cotton loads up. And August couldn't have provided better growing conditions for us. There were no 100-degree days, but steady temperatures in the high 80s and 90s and a slow down of rainfall.

"That trend continued into September," he adds. "And by the end of September, we were all caught up with heat unit accumulation."

Better Varieties
Growers were helped again in 2007 with a strong lineup of better varieties -- both stripper and picker types -- that yielded good crops. "When you have the capacity to grow 2½-3½ bales per acre, a lot more growers have gone to, and stuck with, picker varieties, especially on irrigated acres," says Verett.

Research by the region's Plains Cotton Improvement program continues to provide growers with the latest agronomic and system-cost information on picker and stripper varieties.

Picker varieties have certainly proven their worth on the High Plains of Texas. In addition to growing more picker varieties, many growers are considering using cotton pickers as opposed to the traditional cotton strippers. "There is the potential for as much as 35% of the High Plains acres to be harvested with cotton pickers," says Verett.

However, West Texas is West Texas, where dry weather and little or no irrigation is common for nearly half of the some 3.5 million cotton acres. "That's why stripper harvest will always be necessary to a great extent across the region," says Verett.

The wet weather helped dryland growers push their yields higher, once the heat units showed up in late summer. Irrigated growers took advantage of the above-average rainfall (some counties had surpassed their average annual rainfall amount by June) and kept their irrigation systems silent much of the time.

"Many growers probably were able to reduce their watering by 50%," says Verett. "Virtually no one had to pre-irrigate because we had a full soil profile before planting."

No Flies On This Crop
Insect situations weren't severe in West Texas, even though the wet weather helped create a few more lygus attacks than growers would have liked. David Kerns, an Extension cotton entomologist in Lubbock, says areas west of Lubbock, and further south, had "higher-than-usual" lygus outbreaks "in spotty areas."

Control was efficient with pyrethroids and Carbine. Aphids were widespread late in the summer. "We had a lot of natural (predators) --primarily lady bugs -- that helped control them," says Kerns, adding that some growers sprayed for aphids. "Warmer temperatures in August and September helped suppress them."

There was also some light bollworm pressure where growers didn't plant Bt varieties, and some growers sprayed once or twice for control. Fleahoppers also popped up in some areas. Spider mites became a problem late in the growing season.

Mirror Image
Verett says he expects 2008 regional cotton acres to nearly mirror the 2007 crop. But growers are aware that the new year will likely be more costly than 2007, due to higher energy, fertilizer and other input costs.

"While most everyone is pleased with what we saw in the 2007 crop, the enthusiasm is certainly tempered. In the back of their minds they know they received a lot of help from Mother Nature," he says. "If they had had to use normal irrigation amounts, profits would have been considerably less."

Meanwhile, central and south Texas growers who switched up to 50% of their acres from cotton to corn in 2007, will likely keep their cotton acres steady in 2008. "I'm not hearing that we have the continued exodus from cotton, but there are some areas that might increase grain acres," says Lemon. "Growers are very diligent about a two-crop rotation, usually cotton and corn, or cotton and grain sorghum. That probably won't change for 2008."

Editor's note: Larry Stalcup of Amarillo, TX, is a regular contributor to Cotton Grower magazine.