Cotton Market Ready for a Low Price Cure

The cotton market is finally in the mode of curing low prices.

Fifteen of the past 17 trading sessions have been in the red, as the month-long decline moves into its second month. The only real cure for low prices is low prices. And while prices remained under pressure all week, the downtrend was near flat this week.

As suggested, the 65 to 66 cent doorstep is but a moment away. But for now, the 67 to 68 cent level is providing support. Possibly, that level will hold the price deterioration, but at least the bloodletting has ended, and downside risk is very limited.

The ICE New York contract has fallen to the level that U.S. and other cottons are very price competitive at the Chinese mill door. Too, at the current price level, U.S. and some other qualities are highly desired by the Chinese mills. Thus, with New York futures prices in the mid 60’s, U.S. export sales will continue to see a significant boost.

Crop conditions across the U.S. continue to improve as the U.S. crop plays catch up. This year’s crop progress has been behind average, but has all but caught up and is no longer considered to be a negative on yields. The full potential of the crop remains in front of it, and USDA’s August world supply report will provide the first objective yield estimate of the 2014 crop.

The current crop estimate is 16.5 million bales. However, since that estimate was made, the weather has generally been ideal across the Belt. The crop potential is likely 750,000 to 1.0 million bales more than that, but Texas weather will remain crucial.

USDA enumerators will be in cotton fields the last several days in July and the first few days in August assessing crop conditions. Thus, the August crop report and the August supply demand report will be based on conditions as of August 1, 2014. The results will be released by USDA on August 12 – still three weeks away.

The month-long drop in prices has also brought out international mills. Mills had been slow to take up cotton for the out months until last week and have continued to rev up their action.

Merchant sources suggest that mills were active buyers again this week. The latest weekly export sales report for Upland included net sales of 20,900 RB for immediate delivery and 342,800 RB for 2014-15 marketing year delivery. An additional net 500 RB of Pima were sold across both marketing years.

Turkey, Vietnam, China and Mexico were the primary buyers and represent two-thirds of the most active markets for U.S. cotton. However, sales were made to 19 countries – a sign of both widespread demand and mills’ willingness to commit to long term delivery contracts. This was the most active the export market has been since early May.

Last week’s comments focused somewhat on the Indian monsoon situation. Since then, the monsoon has blessed the drought-parched Indian northern cotton area, and crop conditions have improved and planting has restarted. Much will depend on the strength of the monsoon and its length. The crop has lost some yield potential, but a disaster has been averted.

In the absence of unexpected news, the market will be slow to recoup losses. We should not be surprised to see a challenge of the 70 to 72 cent level in December. But likewise, a 66-cent trade should not come as a surprise.

Topics: ,

Leave a Reply

Market Analysis Stories
Market Analysis

Shurley on Cotton: USDA Planting Intentions In; Time for Market to Focus on Other Realities

March 31, 2015

The March 31 USDA Prospective Plantings report of 9.55 million cotton acres is slightly higher than most other pre-report expectations. Now, it’s time for the market to focus on other matters.

Market Analysis

Cleveland: Market on Path to Higher and Higher Lows

March 20, 2015

Cotton prices bounced back in response to the time-honored adage, “low prices cure low prices.” But there are still a few bumps and curves along the way.

Market Analysis

Shurley on Cotton: March Madness as Prices Tumble

March 16, 2015

Thus far, March has not been kind to the cotton market.

Market Analysis

Dull Trading Likely in a Stumbling, Mumbling Market

March 16, 2015

After losing its prior month gains in one week, the cotton market was left stumbling and mumbling. We are now likely in for a month – maybe two – of dull trading.

Market Analysis

Plexus: Is the Worst of the Selloff Behind Us?

March 13, 2015

The cotton market seems to be regaining its footing, and trade buying is starting to resurface. This leads us to believe that the worst of this selloff may be behind us.

Market Analysis

Plexus: Market Momentum Continues to Stall

March 10, 2015

Market momentum has clearly been stalling. Physical business needs to pick up, but the latest wave of buying may be over for now.

OA Cleveland
Market Analysis

Cotton Market Sliding Along with No Drastic Moves

March 6, 2015

Much like the icy conditions across the Cotton Belt, prices have slid back and forth and sideways, as the price charts remain void of any drastic activity.

Around The Gin
Product News

New 2015 CROPLAN Cotton Varieties Feature Bollgard II XtendFlex Technology

March 19, 2015

WinField is adding Monsanto’s new Bollgard II XtendFlex cotton trait to two new CROPLAN cotton varieties for 2015.

Precision Technology

New Features for TeeJet Aeros 9040 Field Computer

March 18, 2015

TeeJet has added new features to its Aeros 9040 Field Computer for 2015.

Precision Technology

TeeJet Launches New DynaJet Flex Nozzle Control System

March 17, 2015

The new DynaJet Flex 7120 nozzle control system from TeeJet Technologies helps growers manage spray quality across a variety of operating speeds and application rates.

Product News

New Cheminova Chemistry to Help Control Herbicide Resistant Weeds

February 23, 2015

Cheminova plans to register pethoxamid, a new herbicide active ingredient, to help growers manage herbicide-resistant weeds.

Product News

Brake Herbicide Receives Section 18 Approvals in Six States

February 18, 2015

Brake Herbicide has received Section 18 emergency use exemptions for control of glyphosate-resistant Palmer amaranth in six cotton producing states.

Precision Technology

TeeJet Matrix 430 Provides Simple, Easy-to-Use Guidance

February 18, 2015

TeeJet Technologies’ new Matrix 430 GNSS guidance system is ideal for a wide range of field applications.

Precision Technology

TeeJet Launches RX520 High-Precision GNSS Receiver

February 17, 2015

TeeJet Technologies has introduced the RX520 dual frequency GNSS receiver for precision farming operations.

Disease Control / Nematodes

Velum Total Approved for Cotton, Peanuts in 2015

February 12, 2015

Bayer CropScience has received registration for Velum Total, a new insecticide/nematicide for use in cotton and peanuts in 2015.

Latest News
Market Analysis

Shurley on Cotton: USDA Planting Intentions In; Time for Market to Focus on Other Realities

March 31, 2015

The March 31 USDA Prospective Plantings report of 9.55 million cotton acres is slightly higher than most other pre-report expectations. Now, it’s time for the market to focus on other matters.

Market Analysis

Cotton Prices Itching to Move Higher, as Growers Ponder Acreage Shifts

March 27, 2015

The market has shown it is comfortable with higher prices, as planting and production dynamics hold the potential for larger than expected U.S. cotton plantings.

Market Analysis

Cleveland: Market on Path to Higher and Higher Lows

March 20, 2015

Cotton prices bounced back in response to the time-honored adage, “low prices cure low prices.” But there are still a few bumps and curves along the way.

Market Analysis

Plexus: Market Bumps on Weaker Dollar and U.S. Supply Questions

March 20, 2015

While most commodity prices turned lower again, cotton rallied a bit, thanks to a constructive U.S. export sales report. But the big question going forward is how many tenderable grades are left in the U.S.?

Market Analysis

Shurley on Cotton: March Madness as Prices Tumble

March 16, 2015

Thus far, March has not been kind to the cotton market.

Market Analysis

Dull Trading Likely in a Stumbling, Mumbling Market

March 16, 2015

After losing its prior month gains in one week, the cotton market was left stumbling and mumbling. We are now likely in for a month – maybe two – of dull trading.

Market Analysis

Plexus: Is the Worst of the Selloff Behind Us?

March 13, 2015

The cotton market seems to be regaining its footing, and trade buying is starting to resurface. This leads us to believe that the worst of this selloff may be behind us.

Market Analysis

Plexus: Market Momentum Continues to Stall

March 10, 2015

Market momentum has clearly been stalling. Physical business needs to pick up, but the latest wave of buying may be over for now.

Market Analysis

Cotton Market Sliding Along with No Drastic Moves

March 6, 2015

Much like the icy conditions across the Cotton Belt, prices have slid back and forth and sideways, as the price charts remain void of any drastic activity.

Market Analysis

Shurley on Cotton: Not Surprisingly, Market Improvement Slows Down

March 2, 2015

The market is still full of uncertainties, and this recent slowdown might just be a signal that the market needs to take a breather.

Market Analysis

Quality Continues to Drive Cotton’s “Joyful Ride”

February 21, 2015

Cotton’s joyful ride continues, as prices have pressed the 65 cent level, driven by demand for quality machine harvested cotton.

Market Analysis

Plexus: Time for the Market to Rest and Regroup?

February 20, 2015

Look for the market pull back a bit and regroup over the coming weeks. But don’t worry. It’s just taking a breather.

Market Analysis

Plexus: Buying Pressure Should Keep Cotton Moving Up

February 18, 2015

Buying pressure over the coming months should help maintain the current upward move for cotton.

Market Analysis

Market Faces Long and Crooked Row to Higher Prices

February 17, 2015

The market has a very long and crooked row to hoe on its path to higher prices. However, it is sending multiple signals that the 57 cent resistance level did hold, and prices can now begin to ease higher.

Market Analysis

Shurley on Cotton: Upward Progress Finally Being Made

February 11, 2015

Prices should be nearer the bottom end of their likely range. If you’re going to plant cotton in 2015, be patient and wait for possible rallies this summer.