Headwind Or Tailwind?

“Winds of change.” It’s the theme of this issue and also the outlook for the cotton year that’s just ahead. One would have to dig deep into the history of American cotton to find comparable eras of uncertainty surrounding the future of production, marketing and trade. But this time around at least, the winds of change are blowing globally.

And in which direction will these winds take us? In late summer we set out to find the “most pressing issues” in global cotton by surveying a sampling of the readership of sister publications Cotton International Magazine and Cotton International Annual – primarily merchants, spinners, and very large producers. Based on nearly 200 responses, here are the “big four” items on global cotton’s agenda for 2007:

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Gain a better understand of China’s role in global markets. As both the largest producer and consumer of cotton in the world, China has been the “800-pound gorilla” for some time. But when one single mill on the outskirts of Shanghai is said to spin, each year, the equivalent of the entire annual output of Texas cotton, something historic is in progress. India, Pakistan and Bangladesh will vie with China on the mill side longer term. But for now, when China sneezes, the rest of the cotton world will catch a cold.

Build cotton’s share of the total textile market. In hard numbers, consumption of cotton is growing, especially here in the U.S. But as a percentage of total fiber consumption – and despite counter-trends and highly effective market-building strategies in the American consumer market – cotton’s share of market globally has eroded considerably over the past several decades. Think of the lost opportunity!

What do we need to do to rebuild global demand? The potential answers to that question are so important that throughout 2007, Cotton International will hold “discussions in print” each month under the positive theme of “Cotton Is In Fashion.” We’ll share the best ideas with you in Cotton Grower as the series plays out.

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Fiber quality. Sound familiar? It’s not enough to produce a whole lot of cotton anymore. We’ve got to produce a lot of good cotton to remain competitive with man-made fibers. Fortunately here in the U.S. we’ve gotten a good leg up in this area over the last several years as Delta and Pine Land Co., Bayer FiberMax, and other seed suppliers have captured the genies of both yield and quality in one bottle. Maintaining steady progress in fiber quality front, though, will be “table stakes” for those who want to stay in the global game.

Anticipate the impact of WTO free trade issues. Maybe a more down-to-earth way of saying this is, how will the world accommodate developing powerhouses and up-and-comers like Brazil and West Africa without decimating long-established production areas like ours? On the American side of the dialogue, farm legislation in the coming year will be a key piece of the puzzle. And while the picture in Washington, DC, will change considerably next month as Democrats transition to leadership posts in both the House and the Senate, early indications are that full farm legislation rather than just a one-year “patch” could well be pursued.

So what’s it all mean? Hard to say. Most of the top leaders and best thinkers in American cotton will be huddling to answer this very question. But if recent history is any guide, a universal theme inevitably will emerge: We need to be flexible. We need to be willing to change.

Will the “winds of change” prove to be headwinds for American cotton? Or will they be tailwinds that propel us forward to a very different but sustainable future? The answer may well depend on our point of view.

P.S. Just as we were going to press, we were pleased to announce the appointment of Paul Schrimpf as Group Editor, Cotton Grower and the rest of our Cotton Media Group. Paul is a seasoned veteran of agricultural and business journalism who will also continue as Group Editor, CropLife Media Group, which includes CropLife, CropLife IRON, Farm Chemicals International and PrecisionAg. We’ll have details on other editorial appointments in our next issue.

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