ICAC – Convergence of Cotton and Polyester Prices Should Improve Demand for Cotton

With polyester and cotton prices converging on the world market, the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) expects world consumption of cotton to increase by five percent to 24.5 million tons in 2014/15.

According to the recent ICAC Secretariat report, many spinners decreased the share of cotton in yarn in favor of greater use of polyester after international cotton prices spiked in 2010/11. At the start of 2013, the gap between cotton and polyester prices widened, as polyester prices remained fairly stable at around 74-76 cents/lb until dropping to 65 cents/lb in April of this year.

During the same period, international cotton prices climbed higher, reaching 99 cents/lb at their peak.

The situation changed significantly in July, with the Cotlook A index falling to 80 cents/lb while polyester has climbed back to nearly 73 cents/lb. Furthermore, the price of cotton in China has also fallen from around 141 cents/lb during most of 2013/14 to around 126 cents/lb in the last few weeks.

In addition to their world forecast, ICAC expects cotton consumption in Asia to grow strongly in 2014/15, led by China’s five percent increase to 7.9 million tons. India’s consumption could grow by six percent to 5.4 million tons. The rest of Asia is projected to expand by eight percent to nearly 2.4 million tons.

World production in 2014/15 is forecast to be 25.5 million tons, down from 26.1 million tons in 2013/14. Although the monsoon has arrived in India, the volume of precipitation has varied widely, and yield is likely to suffer in some places. India’s production is expected to be just over 6 million tons in 2014/15.

On the other hand, China – with average yields nearly three times higher than India – is expected to produce around 6.2 million tons. The United States has experienced abundant rains this season, and its production is projected to grow to nearly 3.5 million tons.

Trade is forecast to decline to 7.9 million tons in 2014/15, driven mainly by a 26 percent fall in imports by China to 2.2 million tons. India’s exports are likely to fall to 800,000 tons, which would be less than half of its exports in 2013/14. Exports from the United States are forecast to rise nine percent to 2.5 million tons in 2014/15.

The Chinese government will close out 2013/14 having sold around 2.3 million tons of cotton, which is 37 percent of the 6.3 million tons purchased this season. As this is the second successive year in which total purchases by the government exceeded sales, government stocks have increased again, and China’s total ending stocks are now estimated to be nearly 11.9 million tons.

World stocks outside China are up six percent to 8.6 million tons. This is the largest volume of world ending stocks outside China since 2007/08, when they reached 8.8 million tons, and is weighing heavily on prices for 2014/15.

 

Source – ICAC

Topics: ,

Leave a Reply

International Stories

International

Jordan Lea Elected ICA President

October 16, 2014

Jordan Lea, chairman of Eastern Trading Company in Greenville, SC, has been elected 2014/15 president of the International Cotton Association.

International

Plexus: Market Still Has More Questions than Answers

October 3, 2014

Recent news from China has left the market cautiously bearish, mindful of the fact that there is still a lot of harvest time weather to negotiate.

International

ICAC – Lower World Cotton Prices to Persist in 2014/15

October 3, 2014

Noting the predicted 1.8 million tons of surplus cotton production and changes in China's cotton policy, a recent report from International Cotton Advisory Committee says prices are unlikely to rise to the levels of the last two seasons.

International

New Global Cotton Futures Contract Coming Early 2015

October 2, 2014

After a few regulatory delays, IntercontinentalExchange plans to launch its postponed global cotton futures contract early next year.

International

Nicosia Predicts Cotton to Rally Near $1 Over Next Decade

October 1, 2014

Cotton growers may not be happy with current world prices. But patience may pay off over the next decade, predicted industry expert Joe Nicosia of Louis Dreyfus Commodites.

International

Brazil Cotton Production and Exports Below Forecast Targets

September 18, 2014

Low prices and larger-than-anticipated production cuts will leave Brazil’s cotton export numbers well below forecast, and could dash the country’s status as the world’s third largest cotton shipper.

International

Twenty-One Students Graduate from Texas International Cotton School

August 22, 2014

Twenty-one students from the United States and six other countries graduated from the Texas International Cotton School, held August 4-15 at Texas Tech University.

Around The Gin

Product News

Grow Ag Leaders Scholarship Program Includes Cotton Belt States

October 28, 2014

Grow Ag Leaders is offering more than $500,000 in college scholarships to students interested in agricultural careers. The program is available in 40 states, including many throughout the Cotton Belt.

Product News

Platform Specialty Products to Acquire Arysta LifeScience as Component for New Company

October 21, 2014

Platform Specialty Products has reached a definitive agreement to acquire Arysta LifeScience for approximately $3.51 billion.

Product News

PhytoGen Partners with Farmers to Aid Local Charities

October 17, 2014

Since becoming a partner in the Swisher Sweets/Sunbelt Expo Southeastern Farmer of the Year program three years ago, PhytoGen has made donations to 25 charities on behalf of state farmers of the year.

Product News

Enlist Duo Herbicide Approved; Enlist Weed Control System Now Cleared for Use

October 16, 2014

The Enlist Weed Control System from Dow AgroSciences has been approved for field use in corn and soybeans in 2015 by federal regulatory authorities, with introduction in cotton still scheduled for 2016.

News

Registration for 2015 Beltwide Cotton Conferences Opens as Program Takes Shape

October 3, 2014

Registration now is open for the 2015 Beltwide Cotton Conferences, set for January 5-7 at the Marriott Rivercenter in San Antonio, TX.

Product News

October 10 Deadline for Public Comments on Roundup Ready Xtend Crop System Plants

September 25, 2014

The public comment period on the draft environmental impact statement for cotton and soybean plants for Monsanto’s Roundup Ready Xtend Crop System will remain open through October 10.

Cotton Production

New Cotton Webcasts Focus on Using Yield Monitor Data for Precision Planning

September 10, 2014

Two new webcasts to help growers successfully capture and use data from yield monitors have been added to the Focus on Cotton online webcast resource, developed by Cotton Incorporated and the Plant Management Network.

Marketing

First Class Selected for Cotton Research and Promotion Program Hall of Fame

September 8, 2014

Five honorees have been elected to the first class of Cotton Incorporated’s newly-established Cotton Research and Promotion Program Hall of Fame.

Latest News

International

Jordan Lea Elected ICA President

October 16, 2014

Jordan Lea, chairman of Eastern Trading Company in Greenville, SC, has been elected 2014/15 president of the International Cotton Association.

International

Plexus: Market Still Has More Questions than Answers

October 3, 2014

Recent news from China has left the market cautiously bearish, mindful of the fact that there is still a lot of harvest time weather to negotiate.

International

ICAC – Lower World Cotton Prices to Persist in 2014/15

October 3, 2014

Noting the predicted 1.8 million tons of surplus cotton production and changes in China's cotton policy, a recent report from International Cotton Advisory Committee says prices are unlikely to rise to the levels of the last two seasons.

International

New Global Cotton Futures Contract Coming Early 2015

October 2, 2014

After a few regulatory delays, IntercontinentalExchange plans to launch its postponed global cotton futures contract early next year.

International

Nicosia Predicts Cotton to Rally Near $1 Over Next Decade

October 1, 2014

Cotton growers may not be happy with current world prices. But patience may pay off over the next decade, predicted industry expert Joe Nicosia of Louis Dreyfus Commodites.

International

Agreement Ends U.S.- Brazil WTO Cotton Dispute

October 1, 2014

The National Cotton Council expressed appreciation for the U.S. government’s successful efforts to conclude the U.S.-Brazil trade dispute in the World Trade Organization through negotiation, thereby avoiding trade retaliation.

International

China Announces Cuts to Cotton Import Quotas

September 22, 2014

In a move that could add more pressure to global cotton prices, China has announced that it will cut 2015 cotton import quotas to the minimum 894,000 tons required under its commitments to the World Trade Organization.

International

Brazil Cotton Production and Exports Below Forecast Targets

September 18, 2014

Low prices and larger-than-anticipated production cuts will leave Brazil’s cotton export numbers well below forecast, and could dash the country’s status as the world’s third largest cotton shipper.

International

Twenty-One Students Graduate from Texas International Cotton School

August 22, 2014

Twenty-one students from the United States and six other countries graduated from the Texas International Cotton School, held August 4-15 at Texas Tech University.

International

U.S. Production, Exports and Ending Stocks Increase in Past Month, Says USDA

August 12, 2014

USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for August show forecasted increases in production, exports and ending stocks for U.S. cotton.

International

ICAC – Convergence of Cotton and Polyester Prices Should Improve Demand for Cotton

August 7, 2014

With the prices for cotton and polyester converging on the world market, the International Cotton Advisory Committee expects world consumption of cotton to increase five percent to 24.5 million tons in 2014/15.

International

Texas Tech Researchers Develop Low-Grade Cotton Mat for Oil Spill Cleanups

July 31, 2014

Texas Tech University researchers have discovered that low-grade cotton made into an absorbent nonwoven mat can collect up to 50 times its own weight in oil, strengthening cotton’s potential use as a natural sorbent for oil spills.

International

International Cotton Institute Honors 2014 Graduates

July 17, 2014

Thirty-six students from 14 countries graduated from the ACSA International Cotton Institute in Memphis on July 15.

International

Sayed Shoeb Pens Winning Essay for ACSA International Cotton Institute

July 17, 2014

Meister Media Worldwide annually conducts an essay contest for students attending the ACSA International Cotton Institute in Memphis, TN. This year’s winning essay was submitted by Sayed Shoeb of Noble Natural Resources India.

International

Global Cotton Roundup – July 15

July 15, 2014

A review of some of the top cotton industry stories impacting the global market.