ICAC – Convergence of Cotton and Polyester Prices Should Improve Demand for Cotton

With polyester and cotton prices converging on the world market, the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) expects world consumption of cotton to increase by five percent to 24.5 million tons in 2014/15.

According to the recent ICAC Secretariat report, many spinners decreased the share of cotton in yarn in favor of greater use of polyester after international cotton prices spiked in 2010/11. At the start of 2013, the gap between cotton and polyester prices widened, as polyester prices remained fairly stable at around 74-76 cents/lb until dropping to 65 cents/lb in April of this year.

During the same period, international cotton prices climbed higher, reaching 99 cents/lb at their peak.

The situation changed significantly in July, with the Cotlook A index falling to 80 cents/lb while polyester has climbed back to nearly 73 cents/lb. Furthermore, the price of cotton in China has also fallen from around 141 cents/lb during most of 2013/14 to around 126 cents/lb in the last few weeks.

In addition to their world forecast, ICAC expects cotton consumption in Asia to grow strongly in 2014/15, led by China’s five percent increase to 7.9 million tons. India’s consumption could grow by six percent to 5.4 million tons. The rest of Asia is projected to expand by eight percent to nearly 2.4 million tons.

World production in 2014/15 is forecast to be 25.5 million tons, down from 26.1 million tons in 2013/14. Although the monsoon has arrived in India, the volume of precipitation has varied widely, and yield is likely to suffer in some places. India’s production is expected to be just over 6 million tons in 2014/15.

On the other hand, China – with average yields nearly three times higher than India – is expected to produce around 6.2 million tons. The United States has experienced abundant rains this season, and its production is projected to grow to nearly 3.5 million tons.

Trade is forecast to decline to 7.9 million tons in 2014/15, driven mainly by a 26 percent fall in imports by China to 2.2 million tons. India’s exports are likely to fall to 800,000 tons, which would be less than half of its exports in 2013/14. Exports from the United States are forecast to rise nine percent to 2.5 million tons in 2014/15.

The Chinese government will close out 2013/14 having sold around 2.3 million tons of cotton, which is 37 percent of the 6.3 million tons purchased this season. As this is the second successive year in which total purchases by the government exceeded sales, government stocks have increased again, and China’s total ending stocks are now estimated to be nearly 11.9 million tons.

World stocks outside China are up six percent to 8.6 million tons. This is the largest volume of world ending stocks outside China since 2007/08, when they reached 8.8 million tons, and is weighing heavily on prices for 2014/15.

 

Source – ICAC

Topics: ,

Leave a Reply

International Stories

International

Turkish Cotton Association Joins ICA

December 2, 2014

Turkey’s Good Cotton Practices Association (IPUD) has joined the International Cotton Association.

International

Port Problems Choking U.S. Cotton Exports

December 9, 2014

Congestion and labor issues at major West Coast ports are threatening the timely delivery of U.S. cotton to China ahead of a key deadline for imports to arrive.

International

Foreign Governments Work to Stem Falling Cotton Prices

November 18, 2014

According to the Business Standard, government officials in India, China and Pakistan are working to put programs in place to protect their countries’ growers in the face of falling cotton prices.

International

Jordan Lea Elected ICA President

October 16, 2014

Jordan Lea, chairman of Eastern Trading Company in Greenville, SC, has been elected 2014/15 president of the International Cotton Association.

International

Plexus: Market Still Has More Questions than Answers

October 3, 2014

Recent news from China has left the market cautiously bearish, mindful of the fact that there is still a lot of harvest time weather to negotiate.

International

ICAC – Lower World Cotton Prices to Persist in 2014/15

October 3, 2014

Noting the predicted 1.8 million tons of surplus cotton production and changes in China's cotton policy, a recent report from International Cotton Advisory Committee says prices are unlikely to rise to the levels of the last two seasons.

International

New Global Cotton Futures Contract Coming Early 2015

October 2, 2014

After a few regulatory delays, IntercontinentalExchange plans to launch its postponed global cotton futures contract early next year.

Around The Gin

Product News

Deltapine Announces Class of 15 Cotton Varieties

December 16, 2014

Deltapine has announced two new high-yielding cotton varieties for its Class of 15, with several potential varieties awaiting regulatory approvals of the Bollgard II XtendFlex technologies.

Precision Technology

NORAC Hybrid Mode Receives U.S. and European Patent Approval

December 8, 2014

NORAC Systems International Inc.’s Hybrid Mode in-crop spraying feature has received patent approval in the U.S. and Europe.

Product News

Americot Adds Another High Yielder for 2015

November 24, 2014

Americot rode to success on the performance of two top varieties in 2014. For 2015, the company is adding another workhorse variety to the stable.

Product News

CROPLAN a Brand to Watch for 2015

November 21, 2014

Growers familiar with CROPLAN corn and soybean varieties in the South may want to keep an eye on the company’s cotton program, too.

Product News

Deltapine Focused on Raising the Yield Bar in 2015

November 17, 2014

No brand of cotton seed was planted on more acres in 2014 than Deltapine. So it stands to reason that the company’s variety researchers are preparing to introduce monumental changes to their seed lineup in 2015.

Product News

Growth Continues for Dyna-Gro and All-Tex

November 13, 2014

Crop Production Services has put a two brand approach in place for its Dyna-Gro and All-Tex brands of cotton. And their varieties are getting stronger each year.

Product News

PhytoGen Gaining Foothold in West Texas Market

November 12, 2014

In a year that saw PhytoGen introduce several new varieties to the Cotton Belt, an old standard once again stole the headlines as the company looks to gain more of the Southwest market.

Product News

Monsanto, Sumitomo and Valent Extend Crop Protection Partnership

November 10, 2014

Monsanto, Sumitomo Chemical and Valent U.S.A. have agreed to extend their strategic partnership in Monsanto’s Roundup Ready PLUS Crop Management Solutions platform for U.S. cotton and soybeans.

Latest News

International

Port Problems Choking U.S. Cotton Exports

December 9, 2014

Congestion and labor issues at major West Coast ports are threatening the timely delivery of U.S. cotton to China ahead of a key deadline for imports to arrive.

International

Turkish Cotton Association Joins ICA

December 2, 2014

Turkey’s Good Cotton Practices Association (IPUD) has joined the International Cotton Association.

International

ICAC Unveils World Cotton Calendar

November 24, 2014

The International Cotton Advisory Committee has introduced the World Cotton Calendar, containing data on all aspects of cotton production field operations from 37 countries.

International

Foreign Governments Work to Stem Falling Cotton Prices

November 18, 2014

According to the Business Standard, government officials in India, China and Pakistan are working to put programs in place to protect their countries’ growers in the face of falling cotton prices.

International

Regulatory Logistics Delaying Launch of World Cotton Contract

November 14, 2014

Launch of the new World Cotton Contract has been postponed to early 2015 as ICE continues to sort through regulatory issues in Malaysia.

International

Jordan Lea Elected ICA President

October 16, 2014

Jordan Lea, chairman of Eastern Trading Company in Greenville, SC, has been elected 2014/15 president of the International Cotton Association.

International

Plexus: Market Still Has More Questions than Answers

October 3, 2014

Recent news from China has left the market cautiously bearish, mindful of the fact that there is still a lot of harvest time weather to negotiate.

International

ICAC – Lower World Cotton Prices to Persist in 2014/15

October 3, 2014

Noting the predicted 1.8 million tons of surplus cotton production and changes in China's cotton policy, a recent report from International Cotton Advisory Committee says prices are unlikely to rise to the levels of the last two seasons.

International

New Global Cotton Futures Contract Coming Early 2015

October 2, 2014

After a few regulatory delays, IntercontinentalExchange plans to launch its postponed global cotton futures contract early next year.

International

Nicosia Predicts Cotton to Rally Near $1 Over Next Decade

October 1, 2014

Cotton growers may not be happy with current world prices. But patience may pay off over the next decade, predicted industry expert Joe Nicosia of Louis Dreyfus Commodites.

International

Agreement Ends U.S.- Brazil WTO Cotton Dispute

October 1, 2014

The National Cotton Council expressed appreciation for the U.S. government’s successful efforts to conclude the U.S.-Brazil trade dispute in the World Trade Organization through negotiation, thereby avoiding trade retaliation.

International

China Announces Cuts to Cotton Import Quotas

September 22, 2014

In a move that could add more pressure to global cotton prices, China has announced that it will cut 2015 cotton import quotas to the minimum 894,000 tons required under its commitments to the World Trade Organization.

International

Brazil Cotton Production and Exports Below Forecast Targets

September 18, 2014

Low prices and larger-than-anticipated production cuts will leave Brazil’s cotton export numbers well below forecast, and could dash the country’s status as the world’s third largest cotton shipper.

International

Twenty-One Students Graduate from Texas International Cotton School

August 22, 2014

Twenty-one students from the United States and six other countries graduated from the Texas International Cotton School, held August 4-15 at Texas Tech University.

International

U.S. Production, Exports and Ending Stocks Increase in Past Month, Says USDA

August 12, 2014

USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for August show forecasted increases in production, exports and ending stocks for U.S. cotton.