USDA Reduces U.S. Cotton Production Forecast to 13.6 Million Bales

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has reduced its 2013/14 cotton production forecast to 13.6 million bales, primarily due to anticipated abandonment of acres in the Southwest because of drought.

The number was reflected in USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report issued June 12.

Highlights of the report related to cotton include:

• The 2013/14 U.S. cotton supply and demand balance sheets show lower beginning and ending stocks, lower production and higher prices relative to last month.
• The 2012/13 export estimate is up 350,000 bales to 13.6 million, reducing the current season’s ending stocks forecast and reflecting continued strong sales and shipments, as well as anticipated higher imports by China.
• Drought conditions continue to plague the Southwest, with an estimated 32 percent of planted acres expected to be abandoned.
• With total 2013/14 supply running 900,000 bales below last month’s numbers, anticipated U.S. exports have been reduced 500,000 bales to 11.0 million, and ending stocks are down to 2.6 million – equal to 18 percent of total use.
• The projected range for the marketing year average price of 73-to-93 cents per pound is up five cents on each end. Midpoint is now 83 cents per pound – roughly 15 percent higher than the estimated average for last year.