What Would a Change in Chinese Cotton Policy Mean?
April 11, 2014 For several years, cotton producers from around the globe have kept one eye on China’s massive cotton reserve program that has propped up cotton prices and simultaneously threatened to send the market into a free fall. Now some, including Joe Nicosia, executive vice president of Louis Dreyfus Commodities, say the Chinese could finally be on the verge of changing that policy – for better or for worse.
Speaking to a room full of cotton industry professionals at the Mid-South Farm and Gin Show, Nicosia said 2014/15 could be the year the Chinese government begins the process of reducing its 57 million bales of reserve cotton stocks onto the market. Drawing down those 57 million bales represents an enormous task – and that number doesn’t include the bales that are currently being stored in mills and on farms around the country. And, Nicosia says, China was still importing cotton at least through the end of March.
But there is no doubt that China is looking for a way out of its currently bloated cotton reserve policy.
“They have new leadership in China,” Nicosia said. “They realize what they’ve done has created some kind of dislocations, and they have to step forward with a new policy in 2014/15.
“So China has finally come to the table and said ‘Alright, it’s time for us to do something different.’”
The Chinese studied many of the policies previously employed by the United States to determine how they should move forward, according to Nicosia.
“They seem to have settled on some form of target price or direct subsidy program going to their growers so as to try and free up their stocks instead of having everything go into their reserve programs, which is what is currently happening,” Nicosia said.
In the past, China had supported its farmers by buying the cotton directly from them at advanced prices – often as much as $1.20 per pound, before placing that cotton into its domestic reserve. Nicosia noted that this shift in policy was not finalized, but the government was at least considering a change.
Of course, the ramifications from such a policy shift would be felt around the globe. For U.S. cotton producers, the most apparent effect from this change would be a reduction in exports to China. By lowering its premiums paid to domestic farmers, the Chinese government would open the door for Chinese mills to begin to source their cotton domestically – reducing the need for cheaper, imported cotton from America. This would have an immediate bearish impact on cotton prices in the U.S. But, Nicosia said, this is a necessary growing pain for the cotton market.
“Ultimately, this is the beginning of the process of what has to happen for us to start to work through a 100-million-bale carryover,” Nicosia said, referencing global carryover stocks in 2013/2014 – a figure for which China accounts for over half.
Silver Linings
Although a Chinese policy shift would have negative short term impacts on the U.S. cotton market, there are potential positive implications as well.
For starters, without a lofty support price, fewer Chinese growers would plant cotton in the coming year. Nicosia estimates the country’s production could drop to as low as 30.5 million bales in 2014/15. Paired with increasing Chinese consumption of 38 million bales in a year, the country could end 2014/15 with a net cotton deficit of around 7.5 million bales.
What’s more, cheaper prices would make cotton more attractive than synthetic competition to foreign mills. In the years that Chinese policy had artificially propped up cotton prices, the natural fiber has been losing market share to cheaper synthetic products like polyester. Nicosia estimates that cotton has lost some 7 million bales annually to synthetic fibers.
“The good news is that since 2011, (cotton’s market share in blends) actually is finally rising again,” Nicosia said. “And it’s rising higher than the trend line. But we’re way below the level of where we should be, and it’s going to take several years to recover.”
Ultimately, Nicosia said, demand is what cotton will need to draw back its monumental world cotton stocks.
“Today, with the 85 cents price that has existed in the world – that price level supports production in the world of about 115 to 120 million bales,” Nicosia said. “But we’re only using 110 million bales. So if everything stays the same, it’s still going to be two years before we can ever close the gap between our production and consumption surplus that currently exists.”
Current USDA projections for 2014/15 back up Nicosia’s assessment. Global production in the coming year is expected to top 117 million bales, while consumption is expected to hit 113-million bales, according to USDA. That four million bale surplus could once again carry global stocks over 100 million bales next year.
Fighting for Domestic Acreage
Although the international outlook is shaky, cotton remains an attractive option for farmers in the United States. Compared to traditional competitive crops like corn, peanuts and soybeans, Nicosia said cotton is competitive in the Mid-South while remaining the most attractive option in the Southeast and in Texas.
As more U.S. growers opt to plant cotton in 2014, Nicosia is urging them to pay close attention to the factors shaping the cotton market. Specifically, growers should note the current gulf between old crop and new crop prices.
“At new crop, we think prices are pretty attractive near 80 cents,” Nicosia said. “We find it will be a hard time to sustain prices in new crop over 80 cents with two caveats. One is that if the China policy remains to hold all those stocks, then the world will remain to feel tight. Two, is obviously weather.
“The one thing I would encourage you on is to be careful of the inverse,” Nicosia said. “July/December is 10 cents today, and what inverses are telling you is that cotton is worth less in the future. So be careful that you don’t hold any inventory that you have this year through that inverse, because if so, that’s a surefire loss.”
Current consumption and production trends could put U.S. carryover stocks somewhere between 1.5 and 3.7 million bales in 2014/15, according to Nicosia. The difference in those two numbers “is about 25 cents difference in price.”
Reminding growers of the importance China plays in global cotton, Nicosia points at Chinese demand for U.S. cotton as the most important factor in new crop cotton prices – by a wide margin.
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