Acreage Down Slightly In 2008
February 19, 2009 Optimism was fleeting in 2007.
The annual Cotton Grower Survey kicked off the 2007 season in January with growers telling us they intended to plant 13.5 million acres of cotton. That would be the most optimistic acreage projection of the year, as it turned out. At the National Cotton Council’s Annual Meeting in Austin, TX, NCC pegged acreage at 13.21 million. A seed company executive was asked for his reaction immediately after the NCC’s announcement, and in a split second he said, “It’s too high.” He would be right.
At the Mid-South Farm and Gin Show in March, Allenberg Cotton Company projected 12.5 million acres, and that also would be too high. In June, the first USDA number was 11.06 million acres. In November, USDA had dropped that figure to 10.847 million.
In our 2008 survey – after all the forms had filtered in – growers told us there would be 10.482 million acres of cotton planted this spring. That would be the lowest since 10.596 million in 1986, but only down 3.3% from the final USDA figure for 2007.
We all know what’s happening. Grain prices have gone sonic.
If there is a ray of sunshine for the coming year, it is that growers will continue to make capital investments in equipment. In the survey, growers were asked, on a scale of 1-5, how likely they would be to invest in new equipment this year. Thirty-five percent said they were fairly likely to; 23% said they definitely would. Only 15% said they definitely would not buy anything new in 2008.
Another cause for long-term optimism is that carryover is falling, and demand is outpacing production. Most analysts say that cannot continue without drawing millions of acres back into cotton.
So will optimism be fleeting in 2008? Time will tell (as it always does).
Add charts:
Cotton Acreage By State
Texas Cotton Acreage Going Up
Yields Drive Texas Acreage
On Fiber Quality
Use Of Precision Ag
The Yield Effect
Effect Of Global Market
On New Equipment
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