Acreage Projections Reflect Regional Concerns
January 6, 2012 Two 2012 cotton acreage surveys were released Thursday in Orlando at the Beltwide Cotton Conferences. One pegged cotton acreage as lower than in 2011, and the other was even lower.
The Annual Cotton Grower survey of growers projected that 12.9 million acres would be planted in 2012, down from 13.75 million in 2011. Monsanto Co. projected that 12.4 million acres would be planted. The accuracy of both will depend on regional factors.
In the Southeast, peanut contracts reached $1,200 per ton, before tumbling to $7.25. Also, most peanut buyers are currently willing to contract only 20% of a grower’s production. The Cotton Grower survey was taken prior to the price drop, and projected that cotton acreage would be down in South Carolina and Georgia. North Carolina showed an increase. With cotton prices hovering in the 90-cent range, cotton prices are now much more competitive with peanuts.
In the Mid-South, it could come down to a battle of infrastructures. Growers who bought combines and built grain bins will be more likely to stay with grains. However, University of Arkansas economist Dr. Scott Stiles says aflatoxin problems in 2011 could push growers out of corn and back into cotton.
“Aflatoxin concerns in corn are always in the back of growers’ minds here,” Stiles says. “We had an awful experience with aflatoxin in the Mid-90s. No one has forgotten. With the possibility of hot, dry conditions lingering, corn is a gamble that many won’t take in the Delta.
“Rice and soybean margins don’t compete as well as corn and cotton at the present time.”
The Southwest drought has made the regions’ acreage almost impossible to predict. In the Cotton Grower survey, “guesstimates” for acreage in Texas ranged from 5.5 million acres as the low, to 7.5 million as the high.
GET THE NEWSLETTER TODAY!
