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NCC Projects 11 Million U.S. Cotton Acres in 2017

The National Cotton Council (NCC) Annual Planting Intentions survey projects 11.0 million acres of cotton to be planted in the U.S. in 2017.

Upland cotton acres are projected at 10.75 million acres, with Pima/ELS cotton anticipated on another 266,000 acres.

The survey results were presented as part of the 2017 Cotton Economic Outlook during the NCC’s 79th Annual Meeting in Dallas, TX. The projected total is in line with Cotton Grower’s January acreage projection of 10.89 million acres.

In her analysis of the survey results, Dr. Jody Campiche, NCC vice president, Economics & Policy Analysis, said the total 2017 acreage projection represents a 9.4% increase over 2016.

“With abandonment assumed at 12% for the United States, projected Cotton Belt harvested area totals 9.7 million acres,” explained Campiche. “Using an average U.S. yield per harvested acre of 830 pounds generates a cotton crop of 16.8 million bales, with 16.0 million upland bales and 760,000 extra-long staple bales.

“However, it is important to note that the increase in cotton acreage is largely the result of weaker prices of competing crops and improved expectations for water.”

For upland cotton, acres in the Southeast are expected to total 2.2 million acres – an increase of only 0.1%. Positive gains are projected in Alabama (14.2%) and Florida (5.4%), while acreage in Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia is expected to decrease slightly.

Mid-South upland acres are projected to increase 12.8% to 1.7 million acres. All states in the region show acreage increases, led by Mississippi (26.8%) and Tennessee (16.6%).

Southwest upland acres show a 10.7% increase to 6.6 million acres, based on percentage increases in Kansas (42.0%), Oklahoma (30.1%) and Texas (9.5%).

Upland acres in the Western states are projected to grow 15.1% to 268,000 acres, largely due to a 28.3% increase in Arizona and a 4.5% increase in New Mexico. California upland acres are projected to decrease by 1.5%.

For ELS cotton, the projected total of 266,000 acres represents a 36.9% increase over 2016. Acreage increases are expected in Arizona (79.6%), California (31.4%) and Texas (68.4%), with New Mexico acreage holding steady.

The NCC distributed its annual survey in mid-December, asking respondents for information for 2016 plantings of cotton, corn, soybeans, wheat and other crops, as well as intended acreage for 2017.

“As always, the survey results should be viewed as a measure of grower intentions prevailing at the time the survey was conducted,” pointed out Campiche. “Changing climate and market conditions could cause actual plantings to be significantly different from stated intentions.”

Additional details of the entire 2017 Cotton Economic Outlook are now online.

 

PROSPECTIVE 2017 U.S. COTTON AREA

2016 Actual (Thou.)  1/       2017 Intended (Thou.)  2/       % Change

SOUTHEAST                 2,170                            2,173                                       0.1%
AL                                      345                               394                                     14.2%
FL                                      102                               108                                       5.4%
GA                                  1,180                            1,144                                      -3.1%
NC                                     280                               267                                      -4.8%
SC                                     190                               189                                      -0.4%
VA                                       73                                 72                                      -1.0%

MID-SOUTH                  1,490                             1,680                                    12.8%
AR                                     380                                389                                     2.5%
LA                                     140                                153                                      9.5%
MS                                    435                                552                                    26.8%
MO                                    280                                289                                      3.1%
TN                                     255                                297                                    16.6%

SOUTHWEST                 5,987                            6,630                                    10.7%
KS                                        32                                 45                                    42.0%
OK                                     305                                397                                    30.1%
TX                                   5,650                            6,187                                       9.5%

WEST                                233                               268                                     15.1%
AZ                                      120                               154                                     28.3%
CA                                       66                                 65                                      -1.5%
NM                                      47                                 49                                        4.5%

TOTAL UPLAND           9,880                          10,751                                        8.8% 

TOTAL ELS                      195                              266                                       36.9%
AZ                                       15                                26                                       79.6%
CA                                     155                              204                                       31.4%
NM                                        8                                  8                                        -0.8%
TX                                       17                                29                                       68.4%

ALL COTTON             10,075                          11,017                                         9.4%

1/ USDA-NAS  2/ National Cotton Council

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