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NCC Survey Predicts 9.1 Million U.S. Cotton Acres in 2016

NCC Survey Predicts 9.1 Million U.S. Cotton Acres in 2016

U.S. cotton producers intend to plant 9.1 million cotton acres this spring, up 6.2% from 2015, according to the National Cotton Council’s 35th Annual Early Season Planting Intentions Survey, announced at the NCC’s 2016 Annual Meeting in Dallas, TX.

Upland cotton intentions are 8.9 million acres, up 5.7% from 2015, while extra-long staple (ELS) intentions of 208,000 acres represent a 31.2% increase.

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In announcing the survey results, Dr. Jody Campiche, NCC vice president, Economics & Policy Analysis, said, “Planted acreage is just one of the factors that will determine supplies of cotton and cottonseed. Ultimately, weather, insect pressures and agronomic conditions play a significant role in determining crop size.”

She said that with abandonment set at 11% for the United States, Cotton Belt harvested area totals 8.1 million acres. Using an average U.S. yield per harvested acre of 831 pounds generates a cotton crop of 14.0 million bales – 13.4 million upland bales and 595,000 ELS bales.

The NCC questionnaire, mailed in mid-December 2015 to producers across the 17-state Cotton Belt, asked producers for the number of acres devoted to cotton and other crops in 2015, as well as the acres planned for the coming season. Survey responses were collected through mid-January.

“History has shown that U.S. farmers respond to relative prices when making planting decisions,” noted Campiche. “During the survey period, the cotton December futures contract averaged just under 65 cents per pound, which is very similar to year-ago levels. However, corn and soybean prices are 8-12% below year ago levels, so price ratios of cotton to competing crops are a bit more favorable than in 2015.”

Survey respondents in the Southeast indicated a 5.1% decline, lowering the regional total to 2.1 million acres. Across the six states, the results are mixed, with increased acreage in Alabama and Florida and a decrease for the other four states. The survey indicates more cotton in Alabama at the expense of wheat and soybeans. Florida’s acreage almost exclusively is moving away from peanuts into more cotton. In Georgia, cotton acreage is expected to decline by 5.0%, with corn and soybeans pulling acres from cotton. In South Carolina, cotton acreage is expected to decline by 13.5%, with shifts to corn and soybeans. North Carolina is shifting to primarily soybeans and corn, while corn benefits from the modest decline in Virginia.

In the Mid-South, growers have demonstrated their ability to adjust acreage based on market signals – in particular, the relative prices of competing crops. This year’s survey results are no different, with growers intending to plant 1.2 million acres, a 24.9% increase from the previous year. All of the region’s states are expected to increase cotton acreage. In Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi, respondents indicate a reduction in wheat, soybeans and the “other crops” category. In Missouri, cotton acreage is expected to increase, while declines are expected for corn, soybeans and “other crops.” In Tennessee, acreage of corn, wheat and “other crops” (likely sorghum), is expected to move into cotton.

Southwest growers intend to plant 5.3 million cotton acres, a 6.1% increase, with cotton area expected to grow in each of the region’s three states. In Kansas, land is shifting away from wheat and grain sorghum. Oklahoma cotton acreage is expected to increase as wheat acreage declines. Overall, Texas cotton acreage is expected to increase by 5.6%, with south Texas responsible for the statewide increase. The survey responses indicate that cotton growers expect to plant land that was idled in 2015 due to excessive moisture. Little change in acreage was indicated in the state’s other regions.

Far West producers are expecting to plant 213,000 upland cotton acres – a 24.4% increase from 2015. Arizona is responsible for the increase, with California and New Mexico acreage seeing slight declines. Arizona survey results suggest a shift from wheat and “other crops” to cotton. Arizona growers also are expecting to plant 34.8% more ELS cotton. The increase in California ELS acreage in 2016 is likely the result of expectations of increased water allocations.

The survey responses indicate that the modest increase in cotton acreage is largely the result of weaker prices of competing crops and improved expectations for water and favorable planting-time weather.

Comments from respondents underscored the very difficult financial conditions facing cotton producers. For the past two years, U.S. cotton producers have struggled with low cotton prices and high production costs. And, with current futures markets indicating steady prices, producers’ economic situation is not likely to improve in 2016. Some producers, in fact, will find it very difficult to obtain production financing for the current year.

NCC delegates were reminded that these expectations are a snapshot of intentions based on market conditions at survey time. Actual plantings will be influenced by changing market conditions and weather.

Source – National Cotton Council

 

Prospective 2016 U.S. Cotton Area
2015 Actual (Thou.)  1/  2016 Intended (Thou.)  2/ Percent Change
SOUTHEAST 2,235  2,121  -5.1% 
  Alabama 315 344 9.3%
  Florida 85 104 22.7%
  Georgia 1,130 1,073 -5.0%
  North Carolina 385 312 -19.0%
  South Carolina 235 203 -13.5%
  Virginia 85 84 -1.0%
MID-SOUTH 985  1,230  24.9% 
  Arkansas 210 254 21.0%
  Louisiana 115 124 8.0%
  Mississippi 320 448 40.0%
  Missouri 185 211 14.0%
  Tennessee 155 193 24.8%
SOUTHWEST 5,031  5,336  6.1% 
  Kansas 16 24 47.3%
  Oklahoma 215 246 14.4%
  Texas 4,800 5,066 5.6%
WEST 171  213  24.4% 
  Arizona 89 137 54.2%
  California 47 46 -1.4%
  New Mexico 35 29 -16.6%
TOTAL UPLAND 8,422  8,901  5.7% 
       
TOTAL ELS 159  208  31.2% 
  Arizona 18 24 34.8%
  California 117 155 32.4%
  New Mexico 7 12 68.0%
  Texas 17 18 4.2%
ALL COTTON 8,581  9,109  6.2% 

1/ USDA-NASS

2/ National Cotton Council