Is Double Cropping Wheat and Cotton an Option?

It may be one of the lesser factors in where cotton acreage will go this spring, but there is the possibility that Cotton Belt growers could double crop cotton behind a massive wheat crop.

Timing, of course, will be everything. If wheat can be harvested early enough to plant cotton behind it, that will have a positive impact on acreage. Obviously the majority of wheat acreage will be double-cropped with soybeans. I know that. You know that. I just want cotton to get its share - even if it's just a small share.

According to USDA's January 11th wheat seedings report, winter wheat area for 2008 is expected to total 46.6 million acres, up 4% from 2007. Approximate class acreage breakdowns are: Hard Red Winter, 32.5 million; Soft Red Winter, 10.5 million, and White Winter, 3.65 million.

For the Cotton Belt, it's the Soft Red Winter (SRW) figure that is important, because that's all we grow down here. As far as I know.

So go back to that 4% increase in wheat seedings across the U.S. and just forget it. Toss it - it doesn't matter to you at all. But here's what does: Soft Red Winter (SRW) area, at about 10.5 million acres says USDA, is up 21%. Take a look at the chart for Cotton Belt states for living proof. Let me mention that if you add it all up, the 2008 figure is going to exceed 10.5 million acres for the Cotton Belt, because Texas's and Missouri's acreage includes more than just SRW. That may be the case in some other states as well, to a lesser extent. But you still get the picture.

Needless to say, wheat acreage is following the wheat market. When I last looked, the July '08 contract on the Chicago Board of Trade contract is at $8.59. I've heard reports that the basis is in excess of $1 under, so if my figures are true, you can book new-crop wheat for $7.59. Amazing. And there's no surprise that Cotton Belt growers, with a fairly unique set of crop options, are taking advantage of that price spike.

But cotton prices are rallying, too, (see "Market Moment" below). All commodities at the moment are good deals. In the "it's a rumor, and only a rumor" category, I was told that a grower was offered 80 cents Tuesday (January 15) for new-crop cotton. But there we some minor stipulations that he could not discuss in detail. Still, 80 cents is 80 cents.

I'll end by saying that back in my grain trading days (Yes, I lost money. No, I would not go back.) I heard a wise man say, "Good deals are like trains - there's one coming by every 15 minutes." The trick, if course, is to hop on the right train. I'm looking for the one with a cotton destination.