9.5 Million Acres in '08; 11 Million in '09?

On Friday, the National Cotton Council released its annual planting intentions report that predicted 9.5 million acres of cotton will be planted this spring, down 11.6% from last year.

That's both good and bad news to me. You know what the bad is, obviously, and I won't belabor the point. The good - or maybe less bad? - is that some analysts said pre-report that 9.3 million would be on the high side, with a low of maybe 9.0 million.

The Mid-South will be hit the hardest, the NCC report says, with a 25.5% drop in acreage. Arkansas will be down 29.7%, Louisiana 17.9%, Mississippi 31.2%, Missouri 8.3% and Tennessee 28.9%. One of the reasons that Mid-South acreage will plummet again this spring is a dramatic increase in wheat plantings that will limit, or even eliminate, the possibility of planting a cotton crop behind the wheat harvest.

Dr. Gary Adams, the NCC's vice president, economics and policy analysis, says that based on planting intentions and a draw down in stocks, by July of 2009 offtake will exceed supply.

Dr. Carl Anderson, professor and Extension specialist emeritus at Texas A&M, tells Cotton Grower that the large surplus of U.S. cotton available for export could vanish in a year if supply and demand numbers remain constant. Assuming that, it will take 11 million acres of cotton in 2009 to cover demand.

Globally, the International Cotton Advisory Committee is also predicting a drop in stocks, calling for a reduction of 4%.

World Supply and Demand (In millions of bales)

Source: ICAC