Who Can Grow Cotton and Still Feed The Population?

by Henry Gantz
Senior Editor, Cotton Grower Magazine
hgantz@meistermedia.com

In the May issue of Cotton Grower, which went to press yesterday, there is a compelling column by William B. “Bill” Dunavant, III, of Dunavant Enterprises that I encourage you to read. Hopefully you’ll have the issue in hand in two weeks or less.

You may find it astonishing for a cotton merchant write, “I do not care what the world’s farmers plant, so long as they make money, retire debt and become more viable agribusinesses.”

I wholeheartedly agree. None of us in the cotton industry will make it without financially viable growers.

Dunavant goes on to write that, “The market will give the signal to the farmer to plant cotton, and we will be right here to trade it.” The signal to plant cotton could come as early as next year. The reason is pretty simple, but may seem a little contradictory on the face of it: The world needs food, so food crops will continue to be planted at the expense of cotton acreage.

Most definitely a contradiction, huh? But consider this:

• Over the short future, Dunavant says China could lose 15%-20% of its arable farm land – not just cotton acreage; all farm acreage. The fight for acreage in China will be between food and fiber. The winner of that fight is undeniable.
• India may or may not lose total acreage, but shifts out of cotton and into food crops is also undeniable.

Where, I’m sure you are asking yourself again, is the good news for U.S. cotton? You are always advised in this industry to think globally, but just for a moment, don’t. Demand for cotton continues to set records each year. At some point, someone, somewhere has to grow cotton. Ask yourself who has the acreage and resources to produce that much cotton and still feed its population?