Brazil, Argentina Snatch U.S. Corn and Soybean Markets?
April 13, 2010 The combined soybean harvests in Brazil and Argentina, the world’s biggest exporters behind the U.S., were forecast to jump 35 percent to 120 million metric tons this year the USDA said in its most recent report.
“The U.S. has lost its monopoly on exports,” said Toby Hassall, a research analyst at Australia-based CWA Global Markets Pty, Ltd, “South America is going to take an increasing share of the export business.”
The volume of corn scheduled for export inspected at U.S. ports was little changed at 39.376 million bushels in the week to April 1 from 39.561 million bushels, the USDA said yesterday.
Exports of the corn from Argentina and Brazil, also the world’s largest shippers behind the U.S., were forecast to jump 28 percent to 20 million tons this year, according to USDA. Together, the two South American nations account for 24 percent of global trade, while the U.S. supplies 56 percent.
About 33 percent of Argentina’s corn crop has already been harvested, and the pace of harvesting the remaining crop will be determined by the weather, Luke Chandler and Doug Whitehead, analysts at Rabobank International, said in a report e-mailed April 1. Argentina was forecast to expand output by 53 percent to 20 million tons this year. from a year earlier, they said.
Corn futures may range at $3.20 to $4.20 a bushel throughout the year, “barring any exceptionally damaging weather event,” the Rabobank analysts said.
The weather will also determine if U.S. farmers will be able to expand planting by 2.32 million acres to 88.8 million acres this year, as forecast by the USDA, they said.
Expanded planting may boost the next U.S. corn harvest to 13.3 billion bushels, the analysts said. The nation harvested a record 13.151 billion bushels in the year that began Sept. 1, the USDA said Jan. 12.
USDA said that total wheat acreage is estimated at 53.8 million acres, down 9 percent from 2009, due to lower prices based on a glut of wheat on the market.
“The global abundance of supply in wheat, that’s certainly been known by the market for some time now,” Hassall said. “Prices will probably remain on the defensive.”
Global stockpiles of wheat were forecast to jump 19 percent to 196.8 million tons this year from a year earlier as output exceeds demand for a second year, USDA said.
To read the report in its entirety, click here.
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