Market Analysis Stories

Market Analysis

Little Market Movement As China’s Plans Begin to Emerge

September 19, 2014

The current trading range continues, as the market analyzes the impact of flooding in the U.S., continued dryness in Australia and the first initial official announcement by the Chinese government with respect to its new cotton policy.

Market Analysis

Plexus: Market Continues to Meander Sideways

September 19, 2014

The cotton market has been shrouded in plenty of uncertainty lately, which continues to drive its meandering sideways movement.

Market Analysis

Quality Cotton Supplies and Mother Nature Now Driving the Market

September 12, 2014

USDA’s September World Supply Demand report gives us no reason to believe that the narrow 62 to 72 cents trading range will change in the coming month. But the market will likely draw its direction from Mother Nature in the coming weeks.

Market Analysis

Shurley on Cotton: Updated Market Numbers, Thoughts for 2015 Planning

September 11, 2014

Based on USDA’s September Supply Demand report, a smaller U.S. crop should provide some support for prices. But an increase in total world production, reduction in use and increase in stocks may also weigh on the market.

Market Analysis

Prices Settle Back As Anticipation Builds for China Policy Announcement

September 5, 2014

Ongoing anticipation of the Chinese government’s announcement regarding price supports for the 2014 crop has driven cotton prices back near the bottom of the current trading range.

Market Analysis

Plexus: Market Stuck In the Middle of Nowhere

September 5, 2014

The market seems to be stuck in the middle of nowhere at the moment, as December cotton reflects the current tight transition period and the bears continue to pressure March pricing.

Export Market Bumping Prices Upward

September 2, 2014

The delay of deliverable 2014 world production supplies, coupled with limited availability of old crop export grade cotton, has kept a bit of a fire burning under the market.

Plexus: Market Edges Up on Tight Supplies

August 29, 2014

As merchants and mills wait for new crop cotton to impact the market, they are finding out that supplies for nearby shipment are both pricey and hard to come by.

A Change in China’s Cotton Policy Is Coming. Just Don’t Ask When.

August 28, 2014

Anthony Tancredi of Louis Dreyfus Commodities says the most important thing for anyone in the market to know is what China’s cotton policy is. The problem: no one knows – or is sharing – the policy details.

Shurley on Cotton: Prices Show Faint Signs of Life

August 25, 2014

Prices (Dec14 futures) appear to have turned trend up, at least for the short-term. But, they're likely to meet resistance around 68 cents, meaning we may have some rocky ground to plow in order to return to prices starting with a 7.

Market Bumps Up Over World Supply Worries

August 23, 2014

Concern over the amount of cotton available outside of China continues to dominate trading.

Plexus: Positive Market Moves in Past Week Ease Bearish Pattern

August 22, 2014

December cotton finally broke out to the upside in the past week on expanding volume and rising open interest, with the August 21 close marking the highest level in four weeks.

“Market Neutral” Report Keeps Bears at Bay – For Now

August 14, 2014

What many considered a very bearish August Supply/Demand Report has been digested by market forces and determined to be market neutral. Most likely, the 62 cent price floor has developed enough depth to protect the price from sliding any lower.

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Market Analysis

Same Song, Same Tune – Market Sings the Low-to-Mid 60s Blues

October 24, 2014

The same record that has been spinning for weeks is still playing. The 61 to 62 cent price resistance holds firm, attempts to close above 65 cents continue to be thwarted, and the potential for a short covering rally lingers strong in the background.

Market Analysis

Plexus: Market “Boxed In” Between Support and Resistance

October 24, 2014

Volatility dropped this week, as the market is discounting a scenario in which prices are not expected to change significantly over the coming months. Once all harvest is complete and sorted out, we may see renewed pressure on cash prices.

Market Analysis

Sleepy Market Hiding Potential Volatility

October 20, 2014

Cotton trading remains locked in a rather wide ten cent trading channel, but actively trading only a four cent band around 63 cents – 61 to 65 cents, that is. In other words, maybe we are being lulled to sleep.

Market Analysis

Plexus: Market on Firm Footing Through Harvest

October 17, 2014

December prices should remain on firm footing until the bulk of the U.S. crop has been harvested and the quality is known. But the massive global inventory probably means a sideways-to-lower market going forward.

Market Analysis

Demand for Quality Cotton Keeps Market Positive

October 11, 2014

The market spent most of the week in positive territory, as its ability to close higher continues to voice the immediate need for quality cotton.

Market Analysis

Shurley on Cotton: Fragile Market Shows Improvement, Outlook Still Cautious

October 11, 2014

After recently falling to the 61-cent level, prices have made a modest, but still welcomed, recovery.

Market Analysis

Chinese Government Now a Marketplace Fundamental

October 6, 2014

The more things change, the more they stay the same. But through their recent actions, the primary fundamental in the marketplace has now become the Chinese government.

International

Plexus: Market Still Has More Questions than Answers

October 3, 2014

Recent news from China has left the market cautiously bearish, mindful of the fact that there is still a lot of harvest time weather to negotiate.

International

ICAC – Lower World Cotton Prices to Persist in 2014/15

October 3, 2014

Noting the predicted 1.8 million tons of surplus cotton production and changes in China's cotton policy, a recent report from International Cotton Advisory Committee says prices are unlikely to rise to the levels of the last two seasons.

Market Analysis

Confusion Reigns in Market Following China Cotton Policy Announcements

September 29, 2014

Weighed down by unexpected announcements from China, cotton prices continued to trend lower and confusion reigned, as traders attempted to decipher the actual Chinese cotton policy.

Market Analysis

Shurley on Cotton: Time for Growers to Consider Their Marketing Options

September 26, 2014

This is not a good time to be trying to sell cotton. Nothing will appear relatively attractive at this point, but growers nevertheless need to carefully consider their options.