Market Analysis Stories

Market Analysis

“Market Neutral” Report Keeps Bears at Bay – For Now

August 14, 2014

What many considered a very bearish August Supply/Demand Report has been digested by market forces and determined to be market neutral. Most likely, the 62 cent price floor has developed enough depth to protect the price from sliding any lower.

Market Analysis

Shurley on Cotton: August Numbers Likely Neutral to Bearish

August 12, 2014

The August USDA crop production and supply/demand numbers are best described as a mixed bag. Increases in U.S. exports and World Use are good news, as is the fact that ending stocks didn’t increase.

International

U.S. Production, Exports and Ending Stocks Increase in Past Month, Says USDA

August 12, 2014

USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for August show forecasted increases in production, exports and ending stocks for U.S. cotton.

Market Analysis

Chinese Mills Eyeing U.S. Cotton as Prices Near Consolidation

August 8, 2014

Cotton prices attempted to consolidate a bit this week in the face of weather problems around the globe, as well as Chinese mills seeking imports of high grade cotton.

Market Analysis

Shurley on Cotton – Prices Again Try to Consolidate

August 8, 2014

What will it take for prices to find a level of support low enough that the market sentiment will finally say “enough” and turn the outlook more bullish than bearish?

International

ICAC – Convergence of Cotton and Polyester Prices Should Improve Demand for Cotton

August 7, 2014

With the prices for cotton and polyester converging on the world market, the International Cotton Advisory Committee expects world consumption of cotton to increase five percent to 24.5 million tons in 2014/15.

Texas Rain, Monsoons and Cotton Prices All Linked in Bearish Market

July 31, 2014

Market technicals suggest the 60 to 62 cent level will hold for prices in the very short run – depending, in large part, on weather patterns for Texas and India.

China: Still the Elephant in Cotton’s Room

July 29, 2014

In the world of cotton, China is still the enormous elephant in the room.

Shurley on Cotton: Prices Attempt to Stabilize, But Still Show Weakness

July 28, 2014

Over the past two weeks, prices for Dec14 futures have continued to slide, but tried to stabilize in the 67 to 68.5 cents range. In an extended narrow trading range like this, there is usually not much pressure/interest to push prices either direction on current news. Until July 24, it seems.

Cotton Market Ready for a Low Price Cure

July 18, 2014

Cotton prices remained under pressure this past week. But the downtrend was flat, indicating that the market is ready to start curing low prices.

Shurley on Cotton: Market Implodes

July 15, 2014

Everyone wants to know what has happened to the cotton market and why? Unfortunately, says Don Shurley, there are no easy answers.

Export Sales Should Boost Market as End of Price Drop Nears

July 11, 2014

With December futures, a drop to 65 cents is all but certain. But this week’s export sales report indicates a major sales increase in the face of declining prices. And, the sales report for next week should be just as strong.

Obstacles Emerging for Global Cotton Contract?

July 11, 2014

The proposed ICE global cotton contract, targeted to launch the fourth quarter of the year, is hitting some bureaucratic bumps in Malaysia, one of the contract’s three proposed shipping points.

Latest News

Market Analysis

Shurley on Cotton: Lackluster Week Closes on a High Note

October 27, 2014

An end of week uptick closed the market up 81 points from the previous week. But the longer-term direction is still sideways, with a range of mostly 62 to 67 cents.

Market Analysis

Same Song, Same Tune – Market Sings the Low-to-Mid 60s Blues

October 24, 2014

The same record that has been spinning for weeks is still playing. The 61 to 62 cent price resistance holds firm, attempts to close above 65 cents continue to be thwarted, and the potential for a short covering rally lingers strong in the background.

Market Analysis

Plexus: Market “Boxed In” Between Support and Resistance

October 24, 2014

Volatility dropped this week, as the market is discounting a scenario in which prices are not expected to change significantly over the coming months. Once all harvest is complete and sorted out, we may see renewed pressure on cash prices.

Market Analysis

Sleepy Market Hiding Potential Volatility

October 20, 2014

Cotton trading remains locked in a rather wide ten cent trading channel, but actively trading only a four cent band around 63 cents – 61 to 65 cents, that is. In other words, maybe we are being lulled to sleep.

Market Analysis

Plexus: Market on Firm Footing Through Harvest

October 17, 2014

December prices should remain on firm footing until the bulk of the U.S. crop has been harvested and the quality is known. But the massive global inventory probably means a sideways-to-lower market going forward.

Market Analysis

Demand for Quality Cotton Keeps Market Positive

October 11, 2014

The market spent most of the week in positive territory, as its ability to close higher continues to voice the immediate need for quality cotton.

Market Analysis

Shurley on Cotton: Fragile Market Shows Improvement, Outlook Still Cautious

October 11, 2014

After recently falling to the 61-cent level, prices have made a modest, but still welcomed, recovery.

Market Analysis

Chinese Government Now a Marketplace Fundamental

October 6, 2014

The more things change, the more they stay the same. But through their recent actions, the primary fundamental in the marketplace has now become the Chinese government.

International

Plexus: Market Still Has More Questions than Answers

October 3, 2014

Recent news from China has left the market cautiously bearish, mindful of the fact that there is still a lot of harvest time weather to negotiate.

International

ICAC – Lower World Cotton Prices to Persist in 2014/15

October 3, 2014

Noting the predicted 1.8 million tons of surplus cotton production and changes in China's cotton policy, a recent report from International Cotton Advisory Committee says prices are unlikely to rise to the levels of the last two seasons.

Market Analysis

Confusion Reigns in Market Following China Cotton Policy Announcements

September 29, 2014

Weighed down by unexpected announcements from China, cotton prices continued to trend lower and confusion reigned, as traders attempted to decipher the actual Chinese cotton policy.