Market Analysis Stories

Market Analysis

Segment Swap Program Educates Cotton Board Producers About Importer Decisions

September 22, 2014

The Cotton Board's producer members recently participated in a “Segment Swap” program designed to give them a better understand of how cotton importers make their sourcing decisions.

International

China Announces Cuts to Cotton Import Quotas

September 22, 2014

In a move that could add more pressure to global cotton prices, China has announced that it will cut 2015 cotton import quotas to the minimum 894,000 tons required under its commitments to the World Trade Organization.

Market Analysis

Little Market Movement As China’s Plans Begin to Emerge

September 19, 2014

The current trading range continues, as the market analyzes the impact of flooding in the U.S., continued dryness in Australia and the first initial official announcement by the Chinese government with respect to its new cotton policy.

Market Analysis

Plexus: Market Continues to Meander Sideways

September 19, 2014

The cotton market has been shrouded in plenty of uncertainty lately, which continues to drive its meandering sideways movement.

Market Analysis

Quality Cotton Supplies and Mother Nature Now Driving the Market

September 12, 2014

USDA’s September World Supply Demand report gives us no reason to believe that the narrow 62 to 72 cents trading range will change in the coming month. But the market will likely draw its direction from Mother Nature in the coming weeks.

Shurley on Cotton: Updated Market Numbers, Thoughts for 2015 Planning

September 11, 2014

Based on USDA’s September Supply Demand report, a smaller U.S. crop should provide some support for prices. But an increase in total world production, reduction in use and increase in stocks may also weigh on the market.

Prices Settle Back As Anticipation Builds for China Policy Announcement

September 5, 2014

Ongoing anticipation of the Chinese government’s announcement regarding price supports for the 2014 crop has driven cotton prices back near the bottom of the current trading range.

Plexus: Market Stuck In the Middle of Nowhere

September 5, 2014

The market seems to be stuck in the middle of nowhere at the moment, as December cotton reflects the current tight transition period and the bears continue to pressure March pricing.

Export Market Bumping Prices Upward

September 2, 2014

The delay of deliverable 2014 world production supplies, coupled with limited availability of old crop export grade cotton, has kept a bit of a fire burning under the market.

Plexus: Market Edges Up on Tight Supplies

August 29, 2014

As merchants and mills wait for new crop cotton to impact the market, they are finding out that supplies for nearby shipment are both pricey and hard to come by.

A Change in China’s Cotton Policy Is Coming. Just Don’t Ask When.

August 28, 2014

Anthony Tancredi of Louis Dreyfus Commodities says the most important thing for anyone in the market to know is what China’s cotton policy is. The problem: no one knows – or is sharing – the policy details.

Shurley on Cotton: Prices Show Faint Signs of Life

August 25, 2014

Prices (Dec14 futures) appear to have turned trend up, at least for the short-term. But, they're likely to meet resistance around 68 cents, meaning we may have some rocky ground to plow in order to return to prices starting with a 7.

Latest News

Market Analysis

Current Market Level Holding Its Ground

December 19, 2014

The market’s ability to hold its current level has overshadowed the fact that cash prices around the world have firmed a bit, signaling a stronger basis position for most growths.

Market Analysis

Plexus: Slight Upward Bias in a Sideways Market

December 19, 2014

The market appears to be holding in a sideways to slightly higher range between 59 and 63 cents. But don’t rule out spikes to higher levels on spec short covering.

Market Analysis

Market Bumps Up on News of Smaller U.S. Crop Numbers

December 15, 2014

USDA’s lower projections for U.S. cotton production should strengthen the current global demand shift in favor of U.S. cotton. The implication is a relative higher price.

Market Analysis

Cotton Market is Ripe for a Rally

December 5, 2014

Current price consolidation activity has helped uncover excellent demand. A short covering rally could possibly be triggered sooner than later.

Market Analysis

Plexus: Market Showing Signs of Life

December 5, 2014

After closing the previous 14 sessions in a very tight price band, March cotton started to break out to the upside, boosted by a firmer cash market and possible spec buying.

Market Analysis

Shurley on Cotton: New Round of Weakness Sets In

November 25, 2014

Merchants are now pricing cotton basis the March 2015 futures contract. But March futures – and all prices – are showing a new round of weakness.

Market Analysis

I Mean It This Time. The Bottom Is In.

November 24, 2014

I said it at 61/62 cents, so I’d best say it for 57 cents. The bottom is in.

Market Analysis

Plexus: Spec Movement Reveals Downside of Sideways Market

November 17, 2014

The recent trading action that pushed cotton prices into the 50s is linked to the interplay of spec short covering and spec long liquidation, which should keep the market in its current sideways trend.

Market Analysis

Shurley on Cotton: November Numbers Mostly Neutral, Prices Hold

November 11, 2014

USDA’s November crop production and supply/demand numbers are little changed from the October numbers.

Market Analysis

Prices Still on the Path to Nowhere

November 7, 2014

Cotton prices continued their path to nowhere and are expected to continue the same back and forth trading action, reinforcing the thought that the market has bottomed out.

Market Analysis

Prices Hint That the Market Bottom Is In

November 3, 2014

Goblins may continue to haunt the cotton market past the Halloween holidays. But the market is giving more signals that the bottom is in.