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Market Analysis Stories

Market Analysis

Examining Loan Program and Rate Changes for 2017

October 9, 2017

Dr. Don Shurley provides an analysis of what changes in the marketing assistance loan for 2017 could mean for cotton growers.

Market Analysis

Prices Still Sideways as Bearish Moods Grow

October 6, 2017

The market is watching weather and waiting for USDA’s October report. But bearish signs are starting to surface in some segments.

Market Analysis

Cleveland: Market in Hang On and Wait Mode

October 1, 2017

Cotton prices are holding without clear direction right now, as the market continues to watch USDA projections and harvest conditions for answers.

Market Analysis

Lower Chinese Stocks, Higher Polyester Prices Offer Market Hope

September 22, 2017

The market is holding steady, thanks again to China. Their Reserve auction has reduced cotton stocks and bumped consumption. And now, polyester prices are rising as the Chinese trim production.

Market Analysis

USDA Spins Market with Record Supply-to-Use Ratio

September 15, 2017

Hurricanes were but a mere hiccup for the world and U.S. crops. Instead, USDA spun some record-setting numbers that left the market dizzy.

Shurley: Cotton Makes a Hard Landing

September 15, 2017

Following USDA’s September numbers, December cotton seems to have landed back in the 69-cent, pre-Harvey area.

Higher Prices Holding as Winds Keep Blowing

September 10, 2017

An ill wind is blowing amidst the chaotic cotton trading wrought by back to back hurricanes slamming into two of the country’s major cotton producing regions. But which way does the wind blow?

Post Harvey, 75 Cents Back in Cotton’s Sights

September 2, 2017

It remains to be seen if the greater loss from Harvey will be to cotton quantity or quality. But it likely means a wider trading range, with 75 cents now possible.

Shurley: Storms and Other Unknowns for September

September 1, 2017

September could be interesting. Loss evaluation from Harvey will still be underway, and all eyes are watching Irma. How will it all impact USDA’s September report…if at all?

Hurricane Harvey Leaves Several Market Scenarios

September 1, 2017

Following Hurricane Harvey’s rampage through East and Coastal Texas, cotton growers face several possible outcomes based on the level of damage to their fields.

Market Watching for Harvey’s Impact on U.S. Crop

August 25, 2017

Hurricane Harvey blew prices to triple digit gains on the week. Now, the market will assess crop damage to see if the storm blew up crop projections as well.

Was USDA Right? U.S. Crop Looking Bigger.

August 18, 2017

The U.S. crop is signaling that it is getting bigger. With nothing more than a good fall, the crop could climb as much as a million bales more than USDA’s August surprise estimate.

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Market Analysis

Shurley: The March to 80 Cents

April 23, 2018

With prices nearing 80 cents, it’s an opportunity to price part of your expected 2018 production and/or add to previous sales.

Market Analysis

All Eyes on the Southwest as Contract Periods Shift

April 20, 2018

Mother Nature’s willingness to drop water on the Southwest plains will dictate price movement, as the May futures contract expires and July becomes the spot month.

Market Analysis

Strong Demand, Drought Concerns Pushing Prices

April 14, 2018

Thanks to mill demand, shrinking quality stocks and increased drought concerns in the Southwest, cotton continues to post gains in spite of the selling pressure created by rolling positions to the July contract.

Market Analysis

Shurley on Cotton: More Tariff Talk

April 9, 2018

The jury is still out on whether or not the “verbal war” between the U.S. and China will actually result in tariffs, and what the impact on cotton will be.

Market Analysis

Market Holds in Face of Tariff Rumblings

April 8, 2018

World consumption continues to support prices, but the mere suggestion of tariffs makes speculative fund managers nervous and increases market volatility.

Market Analysis

Cleveland: Prices Rally on USDA Acreage Report

April 1, 2018

USDA’s annual Prospective Plantings report pleasantly surprised the market, as seen by the price rally for cotton following the report’s release.

Market Analysis

Shurley: This is Now USDA’s Number for Cotton

April 1, 2018

In my opinion, USDA’s March 30 Prospective Plantings report gets us much closer to what will eventually be the acres planted number.

Market Analysis

Cleveland: Start Pricing This Year’s Crop

March 24, 2018

Plant, plant, plant continues to be the motto. But it’s also time to add price, price, price to the discussion.

Market Analysis

Demand, Weather Concerns Driving Strong Trade

March 16, 2018

The market seldom sees a three-year price stream so favorable.

Market Analysis

Shurley: Pulling the Trigger on the 2018 Crop

March 16, 2018

Producing a cotton crop ultimately commits you to also sell the crop. But at what point do you say the price is “good enough?”

Market Analysis

Multiple Factors Driving Cotton’s Price Growth

March 9, 2018

The fundamentals of supply and demand – among other factors – continue to drive cotton prices toward the high 80s.