facebook_pixel

Shurley: Prices Continue to Flounder in Lower Range

The July USDA crop production and supply and demand estimates did little to correct the direction in prices. The report was actually not bad, but prices continue to show no improvement.

The following are highlights from the report:

  • The 2017 projected U.S. crop was lowered 200,000 bales to 19.0 million bales. This was based on the new June 30 Acreage report of estimated acres actually planted. Abandonment remains at 7%; the U.S. average yield was increased from 810 to 816 lbs per acre. Next month’s report will be the first for the 2017 crop to have survey-based estimates for yield and acres to be harvested.
  • Compared to last month’s estimates, World production for 2017 was raised 630,000 bales. This would be almost 9 million bales more than last year.
  • India production was raised from 28 to 29 million bales. This would be 2 million bales more than last year. India is a major exporter when they have supplies to do so. Exports for the 2017 crop year are projected at 4.2 million bales compared to 4.3 last year – despite higher carry-in and higher production. India’s own mill use is expected to be up compared to last year, but ending stocks would grow by almost 1.5 million bales. Keep an eye on India – what happens there will impact prices.
  • Projected World use/demand for the 2017 crop year was increased roughly 500,000 bales to just over 117 million bales. This is the second consecutive increase in the projection since the first estimate back in May and, if realized, would be 2.9% growth from last year.
  • Projected imports by China for the 2017 crop year remain at 5 million bales – the same as the 2016 crop year. Imports for Pakistan, Thailand and Mexico were raised from the June estimate; Vietnam was revised down from the June number.
  • No changes to the China numbers from the June estimates.

In this month’s report, USDA changed the projected price range for the 2017 crop from 54 to 74 cents to 54 to 68 cents. This could be interpreted to mean that downside price risk is now viewed the same, but upside potential is lessened.

Prices (December futures) now seem likely to move in a range of mostly 66 to 69, maybe 70 cents. Export sales have slowed; shipments for the 7-day period ending July 6 were 208,800 bales compared to 315,800 for the prior period. Shipments now total 13.81 million bales, with three weeks remaining to reach the USDA projection of 14.5 million bales.

Crop conditions for the week ending July 9 showed that 51% of the Texas crop is rated good to excellent, compared to 41% a week earlier.

This market will likely move on U.S. crop conditions and the quantity and availability of export supplies here and abroad.

Topics: , , ,

Leave a Reply

Market Analysis Stories
Market Analysis

December Futures Prices? Ask Mother Nature.

July 23, 2017

Opinions differ on where December futures prices may go. But there’s no doubt that Mother Nature holds the key to forthcoming price activity.

Market Analysis

Rain in India, U.S. Keeps Pressure on Prices

July 7, 2017

Beneficial rains in the U.S. and India kept pressure on cotton prices, as the December futures contract settled the past week unchanged.

Market Analysis

Shurley on Cotton: Where Did the Acres Go?

July 6, 2017

Dr. Don Shurley says the recent USDA Planted Acreage report did not deliver as expected, making times a bit confusing for producers looking to manage risk.

Market Analysis

Bulls Push Market on Heels of USDA Planting Report

July 5, 2017

Smaller than expected U.S. cotton plantings – and the potential smaller crop – caught the bulls’ attention in the market.

Market Analysis

Market Catching Its Breath After 10-Day Slide

June 23, 2017

After an unprecedented 10-day drop in prices, the market is trying to catch its breath.

Market Analysis

Mother Nature, Not Bulls, Managing the Market

June 16, 2017

Cotton prices took a big hit, and bullish signals are hard to find. Mother Nature is now in charge.

Market Analysis

Shurley: June Report Sends Mixed Signals

June 15, 2017

USDA’s June WASDE report contained some good news and some bad news. Overall, Dr. Don Shurley considers the report somewhat bearish.

Around The Gin
Product News

Protect Cotton Potential from Weeds, Worms and Diseases

July 12, 2017

Southeast cotton producers say latest technologies from PhytoGen help protect yield and quality.

Product News

Monsanto “Troubled” by Arkansas Dicamba Decision

June 26, 2017

Monsanto has weighed in on the Arkansas Plant Board’s proposed ban of dicamba use in the state.

Product News

Drexel Adds Two Regional Sales Reps

June 16, 2017

Kyle Herring and David Davis have joined Drexel Chemical Company as regional sales representatives.

Product News

Dow AgroSciences Launching Enlist Corn in 2018

June 16, 2017

Following the launch of Enlist cotton, Dow AgroSciences will make Enlist corn commercially available for 2018 after receiving Chinese import approvals.

Product News

Transform Earns Section 18 Exemptions for Cotton, Sorghum

May 4, 2017

Transform WG insecticide has received Section 18 emergency use exemptions for use in cotton and sorghum in select states for the 2017 production season.

Product News

EPA Approves Monsanto’s NemaStrike Technology

May 2, 2017

The EPA has issued registration for tioxazafen, a new nematicide from Monsanto that will be branded as NemaStrike Technology for nematode control and yield protection in cotton, corn and soybeans.

Product News

Indigo Partners Launched for In-Field Technology Testing

April 25, 2017

Indigo is launching Indigo Partners, a collaboration of 25 U.S. growers and agronomic experts to test agricultural technologies – including Indigo’s microbial seed treatments – during 2017.

Product News

UPI Adds New Herbicide Products

April 14, 2017

UPI has added two new herbicides to its portfolio of high quality crop protection products for the U.S.

Latest News
Market Analysis

December Futures Prices? Ask Mother Nature.

July 23, 2017

Opinions differ on where December futures prices may go. But there’s no doubt that Mother Nature holds the key to forthcoming price activity.

Market Analysis

With Market Oversold, Is Bullish Return Near?

July 14, 2017

The cotton invert continues, as both the U.S. and Australian crops are oversold.

Market Analysis

Shurley: Prices Continue to Flounder in Lower Range

July 14, 2017

The July USDA crop production and supply and demand estimates report was not bad, but prices continue to show no improvement.

Market Analysis

Rain in India, U.S. Keeps Pressure on Prices

July 7, 2017

Beneficial rains in the U.S. and India kept pressure on cotton prices, as the December futures contract settled the past week unchanged.

Market Analysis

Shurley on Cotton: Where Did the Acres Go?

July 6, 2017

Dr. Don Shurley says the recent USDA Planted Acreage report did not deliver as expected, making times a bit confusing for producers looking to manage risk.

Market Analysis

Bulls Push Market on Heels of USDA Planting Report

July 5, 2017

Smaller than expected U.S. cotton plantings – and the potential smaller crop – caught the bulls’ attention in the market.

Market Analysis

Market Catching Its Breath After 10-Day Slide

June 23, 2017

After an unprecedented 10-day drop in prices, the market is trying to catch its breath.

Market Analysis

Mother Nature, Not Bulls, Managing the Market

June 16, 2017

Cotton prices took a big hit, and bullish signals are hard to find. Mother Nature is now in charge.

Market Analysis

Shurley: June Report Sends Mixed Signals

June 15, 2017

USDA’s June WASDE report contained some good news and some bad news. Overall, Dr. Don Shurley considers the report somewhat bearish.

Market Analysis

Report Softens Prices, Consumption Concerns Rise

June 9, 2017

USDA’s June WASDE report sent old crop and new crop prices lower at week’s end, as manmade fibers take aim at cotton.

Market Analysis

Sleepy Market Watching U.S. Crop Progress

June 3, 2017

The cotton market snoozed all week, watching crop development and holding solid at 72-73 cents for new crop December.

Market Analysis

Shurley: Prices Weaker but Remain Above Support

May 31, 2017

As growers complete planting and move fully into the growing season, evaluating the outlook and making price risk management decisions will be crucial.

Market Analysis

Market Settling In as Old Crop Settles Out

May 31, 2017

On-call sales versus purchases are coming in line. Old crop July is done, and the open interest contract leader is now December.

Market Analysis

Fluctuations and Cancellations Create Interesting Week

May 22, 2017

Despite price fluctuations and export sales cancellations over the past week, the cotton market hangs tough as U.S. planting continues.

Market Analysis

Shurley: Is This the Wake-Up Call We’ve Been Expecting?

May 15, 2017

Market movement in the past few weeks may be the wake-up call the industry has been expecting.