U.S. Stocks-to-Use Ratio Reaches 15-Year Low
September 13, 2010 Despite higher production in 2010/11 in both the U.S. and the world, both will see dramatic drops in stocks-to-use ratios. In the U.S., a 14-percent stocks-to-use ratio will be the lowest since 1995/96; a 38-percent global stocks-to-use ratio will be the lowest since 1994/95.
USDA forecasts include higher domestic production, domestic mill use and exports in September, relative to August. Production of 18.8 million bales is nearly 2-percent above last month, based on increases across all regions of the cotton belt.
Domestic mill use is raised to 3.6 million bales, reflecting recent increases in consumption rates and prospects for additional spinning capacity.
Exports are raised 500,000 bales to 15.5 million due to continued very tight foreign supplies. U.S. ending stocks are now forecast at 2.7 million bales, 500,000 bales below last month.
The aggregate world cotton 2010/11 forecasts are adjusted slightly from last month. World production is raised marginally, as reductions for China, Pakistan and Tanzania are more than offset by increases for Australia and the United States.
Consumption is reduced for Pakistan and others but is raised for India and the United States, resulting in a slight net reduction.
World trade is reduced, due mainly to a 1.5-million-bale reduction in exports by India resulting from the recent restrictions imposed by the government. Lower exports by India are mostly offset by higher exports from Australia, the United States and Brazil.
World ending stocks are about unchanged from last month.
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