The March 31 USDA Prospective Plantings report of 9.55 million cotton acres is slightly higher than most other pre-report expectations. Now, it’s time for the market to focus on other matters.

Thus far, March has not been kind to the cotton market.

The market is still full of uncertainties, and this recent slowdown might just be a signal that the market needs to take a breather.

Prices should be nearer the bottom end of their likely range. If you’re going to plant cotton in 2015, be patient and wait for possible rallies this summer.

For the fourth time since last spring, prices have again failed to hold support as new negative forces overtake the market. The decline in prices is concerning, but is offset somewhat by a strong basis and premiums for quality and an increasing LDP/MLG.

Recent activity has simply solidified the sideways pattern this market has been in for quite a while.

It’s not news that 2014 turned out to be a disappointing year for many growers. I’m somewhat optimistic on the price outlook for 2015, but I don’t see much reason to start contracting for anything yet.

Merchants are now pricing cotton basis the March 2015 futures contract. But March futures – and all prices – are showing a new round of weakness.

USDA’s November crop production and supply/demand numbers are little changed from the October numbers.

An end of week uptick closed the market up 81 points from the previous week. But the longer-term direction is still sideways, with a range of mostly 62 to 67 cents.

After recently falling to the 61-cent level, prices have made a modest, but still welcomed, recovery.

This is not a good time to be trying to sell cotton. Nothing will appear relatively attractive at this point, but growers nevertheless need to carefully consider their options.

Based on USDA’s September Supply Demand report, a smaller U.S. crop should provide some support for prices. But an increase in total world production, reduction in use and increase in stocks may also weigh on the market.

Prices (Dec14 futures) appear to have turned trend up, at least for the short-term. But, they're likely to meet resistance around 68 cents, meaning we may have some rocky ground to plow in order to return to prices starting with a 7.

The August USDA crop production and supply/demand numbers are best described as a mixed bag. Increases in U.S. exports and World Use are good news, as is the fact that ending stocks didn’t increase.

What will it take for prices to find a level of support low enough that the market sentiment will finally say “enough” and turn the outlook more bullish than bearish?

Over the past two weeks, prices for Dec14 futures have continued to slide, but tried to stabilize in the 67 to 68.5 cents range. In an extended narrow trading range like this, there is usually not much pressure/interest to push prices either direction on current news. Until July 24, it seems.

Everyone wants to know what has happened to the cotton market and why? Unfortunately, says Don Shurley, there are no easy answers.