Anthony Tancredi of Louis Dreyfus Commodities says the most important thing for anyone in the market to know is what China’s cotton policy is. The problem: no one knows – or is sharing – the policy details.
Prices (Dec14 futures) appear to have turned trend up, at least for the short-term. But, they’re likely to meet resistance around 68 cents, meaning we may have some rocky ground to plow in order to return to prices starting with a 7.
Concern over the amount of cotton available outside of China continues to dominate trading.
According to the USDA’s August Cotton and Wool Outlook report, global cotton stocks will reach a record 105.1 million bales for 2014/15.
USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for August show forecasted increases in production, exports and ending stocks for U.S. cotton.
Cotton growers have from August 11 until October 7 to enroll for the Cotton Transition Assistance Program, an interim payment program created by the 2014 Farm Bill.
With the prices for cotton and polyester converging on the world market, the International Cotton Advisory Committee expects world consumption of cotton to increase five percent to 24.5 million tons in 2014/15.
Market technicals suggest the 60 to 62 cent level will hold for prices in the very short run – depending, in large part, on weather patterns for Texas and India.
USDA has implemented the new Supplemental Coverage Option – one of the provisions of the 2014 Farm Bill – to help strengthen and expand crop insurance options for farmers and ranchers.
The USDA Crop Progress report for July 27 shows squaring and boll set numbers on target with the five-year averages, and overall crop condition well above the same week last year.