# For a Chinese Trade Deal, Cotton’s Wait Continues

Author: Beck Barnes
Published: 2026-10-30
Canonical URL: https://www.cottongrower.com/opinion/for-a-chinese-trade-deal-cottons-wait-continues/

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As a busy cotton producer, you could be forgiven if you missed the Chinese delegation’s visit to Washington, D.C. back in late September. You may have been defoliating. To be sure, you didn’t miss much.

Some of us had high hopes when this visit was first announced. If we were to strike a trade deal with China — one that featured cotton prominently — it could have a massive upward impact on the cotton market.

The latest round of tariffs from the United States federal government have had a chilling effect on the cotton traded between the two countries. In 2025, American cotton exports to China fell to 400,000 bales. It was the lowest total in a decade.

Joe Nicosia, executive vice president of the Louis Dreyfus Company, used clear language when describing the major impact a Chinese deal would have on the cotton market.

“Without a doubt, (a Chinese trade deal) is the one that matters,” Nicosia told the audience back at the Mid-South Farm and Gin Show in late February. “If we could have anything go right, we need this one.”

But cotton didn’t seem to be a major talking point when Chinese President Xi Jinpin visited the Trump White House this fall. During the week of the visit, many headlines centered on the topic of artificial intelligence. Cotton, and agriculture more broadly, took a back seat.

Ultimately, after a week of state dinners and military pomp, the Chinese delegation flew back home with very few tangible accomplishments to speak of. Market analyst Herman Kohlmeyer of M.J. Nugent wrote at the time: “Two pandas. That’s about all the U.S. got out of the meeting with Xi.”

We should note here that the U.S.-China Board of Trade did outline the framework for a deal — one that enumerated 1,600 products that would be considered for “reduced tariff treatment.” There was no timeline given for when the reduction might take place — or by what percentage the tariffs would be reduced. But cotton was included, at least.

For now, the wait continues. In many ways, a deal between the United States and China has less import than it did eight years ago, during the first round of trade disputes. Since that time, both the Chinese and Americans have found a few new dance partners when it comes to cotton exports.

But make no mistake, to echo Nicosia’s sentiment. A trade deal between the two largest global economies would be massive for the cotton market. At a time when cotton profitability has never been more challenged in this country, a deal with our Chinese counterparts can’t come soon enough.