Mad Dogs, Englishmen and Editors Go Out into the Mid-Day Sun
July 23, 2009 This popped into my head as I was thinking about what I was going to write for today: “Only mad dogs and Englishmen go out into the mid-day sun.” But that ‘sho ain’t true when it comes to you.
The words “’sho” and “ain’t” and the fact that it’s baseball season led to another thought, although it has nothing at all to do with today’s subject. I freely admit my trains of thought can be rather strange: In the movie “Long Gone,” the hometown Tampico Stogies are a really bad baseball team at the start of the season. But like most baseball movies, the hapless Stogies find the ultimate miracle and become champions. Early on, the Stogies’ radio broadcaster utters this classic line: “I don’t know what them boys is playin’, but is ‘sho ain’t baseball.”
I guess I could find something relative in there somewhere if I looked hard enough, but I ‘sho ain’t got time today.
We don’t publish Cotton Grower again until September, so Beck and I are headed for the beach to drink fuzzy navels and look at the bikini-clad babes. We can get away with that because we’re both single.
And if you believe that, you’re either a mad dog or an early season Tampico Stogie.
Seriously, this is the time of the year when we go out into the mid-day sun for field days and to collect grower stories and interviews to get us through until planting time next year.
Anyway, the point is the we’re headed to the field soon. Because of weather extremes, this was really a strange year at planting. There’s cotton all over the Belt in different stages of growth. The logical choice is for us to start in the Southeast and work our way to Texas.
I don’t know if you’ve been watching the ICE/NYBOT December 2010 contract, but on Monday, cotton came ever-so-close to 72 cents per pound before it became over bought and dropped back to 68-cent range.
On the Chicago Board of Trade, November 2010 soybeans closed Wednesday at $9.01 per bushel. With a basis of a $1, that’s a booking price of $8.01. I don’t know what the booking price of cotton has to be to find equilibrium with soybeans, but we could very well find out if another dime can be squeezed out of December 2010 cotton .
As it has become so very obvious, China is the world’s driver when it comes to the world price of cotton. We’re reading day after day that China is emerging from the world recession earlier than expected. If that’s true, China is going to need cotton. We have cotton to sell. Coupled with our lowest acreage since 1983 and potential problems in India, the fundamentals are bullish in the long run.
So it is with a certain sense of optimism that we head out, equipped with caps to wear in the mid-day sun. We’ll see you …
As mentioned, the cotton crop got off to an erratic start.
Poll Of The Week
Q: What is your moisture situation now?
A) We’re drowning.
B) It’s wet, but we’ll get by
C) We’re fine.
D) It’s dry and we need a rain.
E) A rain would help, but not a lot.
To vote, click here.
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