Cotton is and always will be the most down-to-earth fiber. The pun reflects both the fact that it is grown from the earth and it is most practical for apparel and home furnishing as it is breathable, comfortable, cost effective, smart and safest for the environment. The trends and efforts over the next four years will ensure cotton maintains its status as a down-to-earth, practical fiber.
Man-made fiber like polyester is considered the competitor but in reality, over the next few years, cotton’s main competitors will be food and biofuels. The land area cultivated in the United States for cotton in 2006/07 was 15.2 million acres; in 2010/11, 11 million acres. It may increase slightly in 2011/12, but we are seeing huge acreage lost to other crops over the years.
Identifying the Real Competitor
Growing more food is consistently a big demand around the world and will eat into land suitable for cotton.
In some countries, the transportation of food is given priority over nonperishable cotton, so food is a competitor to cotton even in the realm of transportation. This slows down movement of cotton and cash liquidation. Most farmers, ginners and merchants hate this situation. This may lead to choosing crops other than cotton to avoid logistic issues.
In coming years, worrying about and battling synthetics like polyester is not the main concern – competing with food crops is. ICAC and Cotton Incorporated research reveals that cotton fiber is increasing in volume but falling in consumption, percentage-wise, compared to man-made fibers. Ensuring volume increases is crucial.
Domestic demand in countries like China and India, which now have many middle-class earners who love to spend more on cotton products, will grow over the next few years. As a result of this demand and competition with food, we will witness certain trends that will keep cotton as a practical fiber:
1. Many speculators have entered cotton futures trading and do so at their whims and fancy, creating a lot of volatility. Controls over speculators will reduce hoarding and also keep textile manufacturers fairly settled in price so they can take long-term contracts and keep cotton alive as a fiber. Price consistency will play a big role. We saw how many mills switched to man-made fibers because of the inconsistency. If speculators are not regulated and controlled, volatility will continue and fail to give cotton long-term gains.
2. Governments will play a massive role. Next year, the U.S. farm policy will be a major factor to consider. Also, government policies in China and India will play a big role. In this fast Internet age, a slight change in policy brings about a quick difference in price. Government regulations, controls, subsidies, research, tariffs, transportation and infrastructure will all play important roles to encourage farmers to increase acreage for cotton.
3. Cotton seed demand will increase because it has numerous uses. The trend will be to develop seed that is gossypol-free and demand will be further increased. It will not be long before cotton will be grown for the seed and not the fiber. This will revolutionize the cotton business.
Biotechnology and the development of BT seeds that offer good strength and length, consistent micronaire, are high-yielding, insect-protected, and consume less water, will bring huge change to the industry. Seed management and distribution will also be important as countries plant the same seed in a large area as they plan to switch to mechanical harvesting.
4. Stress on best manufacturing practices will increase. Australia is the best example of growing creatively, with best manufacturing practices – high yield, less contamination, less water. Good management will undoubtedly be a major trend. This trend will knock out competition with food.
5. The battle for pass-through of increases or decreases in price will be a trend that most need to address, whether retailers, garment manufacturers, fabric mills, yarn mills, ginners or growers. We have research that shows a 140% price increase for cotton fiber translates to a 65% price jump for yarn, 21% for fabric, and 2% for garments. This chain reaction will put pressure on fabric and garment manufacturers and retailers. We need to settle this issue at some point.
6. We will witness special chemical finishes on cotton fabric and apparel. A few examples are fire retardant, antibacterial, and waterproof (yet still breathable) finishes. Making cotton useful as a nonwoven in the surgical and medical industry is a trend that will only increase.
7. Cotton will be grown with better length, strength and micronaire. Increased blending of cotton with other man-made fibers will be a trend. Many companies blend cotton with polyester but need to blend it with other fibers.
Even though I am passionate about cotton and would love to see it as a standalone fiber, I am convinced that we all need to accept the fact that in order for it to survive competition with food, we must blend it with man-made fiber. Keep the blend cotton-rich in relation to polyester and other fibers like nylon, cashmere, tencel, special fibers and twill. It will not only increase the value and function of the final product, but ensure that cotton is dominant because of its intrinsic properties. Designers and product development textile engineers will spend time creatively and effectively blending cotton with other fibers.
The various trends over the next few years are challenging but cotton is a survivor fiber. It has gone through the storms and winds of time and always emerges as the most sensible and preferred fiber. Global Lifestyle Monitor studies support this and state more than 50% of people agree that better-quality clothes come from natural fibers. The trends over the next few years will make it emerge even stronger, not just intrinsically, but in its consumption and application. It is God’s gift to mankind and we must be faithful and good stewards of this beautiful, down-to-earth fiber.
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