A 50/50 Proposition
March 5, 2009 I loath “have you ever noticed” columns and monologues.
So forgive me for asking, have you ever noticed that toddlers almost always put their shoes on the wrong feet? I mean, the probability of them getting it right is a 50/50 proposition.
I noticed that my children, at that age, almost always got it wrong, but I didn’t care. Otherwise, they were perfect.
In the last marketing year, we exported a record 17.5 million bales of cotton, with roughly 50% — 9 million bales — going to China.
China is the world’s largest cotton producer (30 million bales), the world’s largest cotton consumer (50 million bales) and the world’s largest cotton importer (19 million bales). If this were Texas Hold ’Em,China would be all in.
So if you have noticed and care, you are aware that roughly 50% of China’s imports in 2005/06 came from the U.S.
And while our exports and their imports are mutually exclusive, it’s not a stretch to call the relationship another 50/50 proposition.
This month’s cover story is a feature on the Wiggers of Winnsboro, LA, who are rotating wheat and cotton.
A cotton/wheat rotation is not at all usual in certain parts of the country where wind breaks have to be planted to protect cotton seedlings. It is unusual to plant wheat as a cash crop on cotton ground because you are all in as you face getting the wheat out, and the cotton in, on time.
But going all in may win the pot. If you’ve noticed and care, you are more than aware that wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade have taken off, due to the fact that wheat stocks are at a 25-year low. As we go to press, the CBOT July ’07 contract is trading at around $4.70 per bushel and has been as high as $4.98. The Wiggers tell me that with their yields, $3.50 is a break-even proposition. (I wanted to stick “a 50/50 proposition” in here, but I just couldn’t make it work.)
And finally, I would like to say a hail and hearty good-bye to my friend and Cotton Group Editor Frank Giles, who is leaving us to join Rhea & Kaiser, where he will do the PR deal on the Bayer CropScience FiberMax account. Frankie leaves a big hole that we will try to fill.
At the same time, we welcome aboard Drew Harris and Jim Steadman.
Drew joins the editorial team after spending time as associate editor for a local newspaper group. He becomes the second Ole Miss grad on the staff, and you just can’t have enough of those.
Jim is our new account manager and has spent nearly 30 years in agriculture, representing a number of leading seed and chemical companies in their marketing efforts and doing the PR deal.
So we lose one and gain two … and that’s better than a 50/50 proposition.
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