In a market characterized by historically low worldwide stocks, all-time high prices, and demand that continues to outpace production year after year, the last thing the cotton industry needs is a reduced U.S. cotton crop. Although the storms that passed through Texas last month featured golf-ball-sized hail and very high winds, the overall damage wasn’t catastrophic: a reduction to the U.S. crop of less than 2.5 percent.
Last month, experts were predicting a total U.S. output of 18.9 million bales, but the storms caused that number to be revised downward to 18.4 million bales. However, that’s still a 51 percent increase over the previous year’s crop of 12.2 million bales. Of that 18.4 million bales produced, it’s expected that the U.S.–the world’s largest exporter–will ship about 15.5 million bales, or 84 percent of the total crop.
Estimates for the yield of the Texas crop were dropped by 6.7 percent to 739 lbs. per acre after the storm–which, like total production, is still a major improvement, considering the previous year’s yield was more than 100 lbs. lower at 635 lbs. per acre.