NCC Survey Projects 11.5 Million Planted Acres of Cotton in 2021
February 12, 2021 Updated Feb. 11
According to the National Cotton Council’s 40th Annual Early Season Planting Intentions Survey, U.S. cotton producers intend to plant 11.5 million cotton acres this spring, down 5.2% from 2020 based on USDA’s February 2021 estimate.
The survey results – presented during the NCC’s 2021 Annual Meeting virtual live-stream event – indicated upland cotton intentions of 11.3 million acres, down 4.9% from 2020, while extra-long staple (ELS) intentions of 161,000 acres represent a 20.7% decline.
In comparison, the Cotton Grower 2021 Acreage Survey, released in January, projected 11.61 million cotton acres for this year.
In presenting the results, Dr. Jody Campiche, NCC Vice President, Economics & Policy Analysis, noted, “Planted acreage is just one of the factors that will determine supplies of cotton and cottonseed. Ultimately, weather and agronomic conditions are among the factors that play a significant role in determining crop size.”
Using projected abandonment of 18.1% for the U.S., harvested cotton area totals 9.4 million acres. At an average U.S. yield per harvested acre of 855 pounds, the U.S. crop should generate 16.7 million bales – 16.3 million of upland and 431,000 ELS.
The NCC questionnaire, mailed in mid-December 2020 to producers across the Cotton Belt, asked for the number of acres devoted to cotton and other crops in 2020 and the acres planned for the coming season. Survey responses were collected through mid-January. The results are a snapshot of intentions based on market conditions at survey time, with actual plantings influenced by changing market conditions and weather.
“History has shown that U.S. farmers respond to relative prices when making planting decisions,” pointed out Campiche. “Relative to the average futures prices during the first quarter of 2020, prices of all commodities were trading higher. For the 2021 crop year, corn, soybeans, wheat and sorghum are expected to provide more competition for cotton acres.”
In the Southeast, respondents indicated a 4.2% decrease to 2.3 million acres, primarily due to anticipated increases in corn, wheat, soybeans and peanut acres. Across the region, only North Carolina and South Carolina show increases in cotton acreage by 13.4% and 2.6% respectively.
Mid-South growers intend to plant 1.7 million acres – a decline of 3.7% from the previous year as acres shift to corn, wheat and soybeans for 2021. Across the region, all states except Missouri intend to decrease cotton acreage.
Southwest growers intend to plant 7.1 million cotton acres, a 5.5% percent decline. In Kansas, producers intend to plant 0.9% more cotton and less corn, wheat and soybeans. In Oklahoma, growers expect to plant 5.2% less cotton and more wheat. Texas acreage is expected to decline 5.7% percent as more acres move to corn, wheat and sorghum.
Far West producers expect to plant 197,000 upland cotton acres – a 2.5% decrease from 2020. Only New Mexico projects a slight increase in upland acres for the year.
ELS acreage is expected to decline by 26.7% in California and 10.5% in Texas due to concerns about water availability. A slight increase is expected in Arizona, while New Mexico acreage looks to remain unchanged from 2020.
National Cotton Council Prospective 2021 U.S. Cotton Area
| 2020 Actual (Thou.) 1/ | 2021 Intended (Thou.) 2/ | Percent Change | ||||||
| SOUTHEAST | 2,368 | 2,268 | -4.2% | |||||
| Alabama | 450 | 408 | -9.3% | |||||
| Florida | 98 | 97 | -1.2% | |||||
| Georgia | 1,190 | 1,088 | -8.6% | |||||
| North Carolina | 360 | 408 | 13.4% | |||||
| South Carolina | 190 | 195 | 2.6% | |||||
| Virginia | 80 | 72 | -10.0% | |||||
| MID-SOUTH | 1,800 | 1,733 | -3.7% | |||||
| Arkansas | 525 | 489 | -6.8% | |||||
| Louisiana | 170 | 161 | -5.6% | |||||
| Mississippi | 530 | 521 | -1.6% | |||||
| Missouri | 295 | 299 | 1.2% | |||||
| Tennessee | 280 | 263 | -6.1% | |||||
| SOUTHWEST | 7,520 | 7,109 | -5.5% | |||||
| Kansas | 195 | 197 | 0.9% | |||||
| Oklahoma | 525 | 498 | -5.2% | |||||
| Texas | 6,800 | 6,415 | -5.7% | |||||
| WEST | 202 | 197 | -2.5% | |||||
| Arizona | 125 | 125 | -0.3% | |||||
| California | 34 | 28 | -17.7% | |||||
| New Mexico | 43 | 44 | 3.2% | |||||
| TOTAL UPLAND | 11,890 | 11,308 | -4.9% | |||||
| TOTAL ELS | 203 | 161 | -20.7% | |||||
| Arizona | 7 | 8 | 19.8% | |||||
| California | 147 | 108 | -26.7% | |||||
| New Mexico | 11 | 11 | 0.0% | |||||
| Texas | 38 | 34 | -10.5% | |||||
| ALL COTTON | 12,093 | 11,468 | -5.2% | |||||
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