Texas Cotton Production Outlook Optimistic Amid Low Prices
Production expectations are good for Texas cotton, but low prices may stymie positive outcomes for growers.
John Robinson, Ph.D., Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service Economist in the Texas A&M Department of Agricultural Economics, says growing conditions are much better than in recent years due to drought, but prices are low and could decline further.
In 2022, Texas cotton growers experienced widespread crop losses, Robinson says. Two out of three acres planted with cotton were abandoned due to unrelenting drought.
Subsequent years produced below-average results for growers, he adds. In 2023 and 2024, winter and springtime rains provided decent planting conditions before arid weather set in. High temperatures and little to no rain led to lower yields in dryland and irrigated fields, while late-season rains delayed harvests in some areas and hurt lint quality.
“Most cotton growers across Texas have taken a punch in the gut the last few years and are looking for that season to make up for it,” he says. “Conditions around the state should provide that kind of optimism, but unfortunately, the other important profit factor – prices – are pretty weak.”
Cotton Prices Slide
A June 30 USDA report estimated national cotton acreage would be 10.1 million acres, down 10% compared to last year. Cotton acres in Texas, the nation’s leading producer, were expected to be down over 4% — 5.7 million acres compared to 5.95 million acres in 2024.
Robinson says low prices, coupled with wet weather and delayed plantings in the Mississippi Delta region, likely factored into the decline. The lower acre estimates did not result in a price boost at market.
Before the report was released, there were some expectations that cotton plantings could be closer to 9 million acres.
Cotton prices have taken a long slide from 80-85 cents per pound since March 2024 and settled below 70 cents per pound since May. December futures were trading at 67.8 cents per pound on July 7.
Robinson says the acreage estimate, coupled with higher-than-expected ending stockpiles of cotton and speculative commodity selling, continue to factor into a weaker market.
“Nothing bullish about the cotton market has changed the speculative short position of those traders who expect the price to go lower still,” he explains. “People were expecting the planted acres to drop further than they did, which would have made the ending stocks outcome a lot tighter, which is fundamentally supportive of better prices. But the reverse happened.”
Production Potential Is There
Robinson says growers are hoping above-average yields can compensate for lower prices.
Crop productivity will be highly weather-dependent from now until harvesting begins. Some cotton acres have received too much moisture in recent weeks and need sun and warmer temperatures to accumulate heat units and progress. Texas dryland cotton acres and most irrigated acres in the northern half of the state will need timely rains in July and August.
Harvests in South Texas typically begin in August, with the Texas High Plains maturing into November and harvests lasting into January.
“It’s good that we have moisture, but there is a lot of uncertainty,” says Robinson. “The potential for good production is there. Now we just need some conditions to align.”
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