August 2025 Cotton Market Recap: Expert Analysis From Dr. O.A. Cleveland

By Cotton Grower Staff|September 9, 2025

Dr. O.A. Cleveland, professor emeritus of Agricultural Economics at Mississippi State University, brings more than 50 years of experience in commodities to his role as a trusted voice in the cotton industry. As an advisor, analyst, and consultant to many of the world’s top cotton organizations, his insights have guided growers and traders alike. For over 20 years, Dr. Cleveland has also delivered weekly market commentary to Cotton Grower readers. Now, to help you stay informed at a glance, we’re introducing a monthly recap featuring key takeaways from his weekly columns. Below are highlights from August 2025, with links to the full articles:

August 4: Cotton’s Dog Days of Summer Bring Multiple Possibilities

Summary: The cotton market slipped from eleven closes in the 68-cent range to four consecutive closes in the 67-cent range, settling at 66.36 cents on August 1 as the new marketing season began. Analysts expect prices to hover between 66–69 cents, though a drop to 63 cents is possible if favorable weather boosts the U.S. crop beyond USDA’s 14.6 million-bale estimate. Demand remains weak despite higher consumer apparel spending, and tariffs are not seen as a key factor, with Brazil’s lower production costs giving it an edge in China’s market. U.S. cotton still has opportunities in Southeast Asia but must strengthen outreach, while weather across the Texas plains remains a critical factor for future price movement. Read the full commentary from Dr. O.A. Cleveland here.

August 11: Good Week for Cotton Prices, But Bears Maintain Control

Summary: Cotton futures showed slight optimism with a 24-point gain and December contracts settling at 66.60 cents, but technical signals point to ongoing bearish pressure, with prices potentially dropping to 63 cents. The market is weighed down by weak demand, low mill capacity, and high On Call sales, while the U.S. crop remains uncertain and dependent on August–September rainfall, particularly in West Texas. USDA’s August report and subsequent estimates will clarify crop size, but prices are expected to hover around 66 cents with a downward bias. Despite tariff debates, fair trade policies and current administration support remain strong, and growers are advised to delay pricing decisions to leverage potential LDP strategies. Read the full commentary from Dr. O.A. Cleveland here.

August 18: Give a Gift of Cotton Today…Please

Summary: Cotton prices remain weak despite the August USDA report showing U.S. production down 1.4 million bales, carryover reduced to 3.6 million, and world stocks lower by over three million bales — factors that once would have driven prices higher. Demand has become largely irrelevant in price analysis, as consumer preference shifts toward synthetic fibers and global trade slows. Export sales are soft, forward sales lag at just 28% of projected usage, and a record spread between On-Call sales and purchases threatens further price declines. Growers face shrinking profits and will likely rely on marketing loan gains and POP strategies, with weather still critical to yields. Read the full commentary from Dr. O.A. Cleveland here.

August 31: Cotton Market Tease Continues With Little Movement

Summary: Cotton prices remain stuck in a narrow 65.50–68.50 cent trading range, with December futures settling at 66.54 cents, down 147 points for the week. Analysts hope support at 66 cents will hold, but bearish factors — including slow export sales, rising on-call sales versus purchases, and Brazil’s cheaper cotton — point to potential declines toward 63 cents. The U.S. crop is slightly late, but recent moisture may boost yields, adding pressure to prices. With weak global demand and sluggish mill activity, bearish sentiment persists, though prices are expected to stay rangebound for now. Read the full commentary from Dr. O.A. Cleveland here.