June 2025 Cotton Market Recap: Expert Analysis From Dr. O.A. Cleveland

By Cotton Grower Staff|July 1, 2025

Dr. O.A. Cleveland, professor emeritus of Agricultural Economics at Mississippi State University, brings more than 50 years of experience in commodities to his role as a trusted voice in the cotton industry. As an advisor, analyst, and consultant to many of the world’s top cotton organizations, his insights have guided growers and traders alike. For over 20 years, Dr. Cleveland has also delivered weekly market commentary to Cotton Grower readers. Now, to help you stay informed at a glance, we’re introducing a monthly recap featuring key takeaways from his weekly columns. Below are highlights from June 2025, with links to the full articles:

May 31: Yield, Not Price, Will Determine 2025 Cotton Success

Summary: Cotton’s 2025 success hinges on yield rather than price, as weather patterns create a mixed outlook across U.S. regions. Despite a late, wet start in some areas, timely rains in the Southwest offer hope for a stronger crop. Prices remain range-bound, with July and December futures trading between 63–68 cents, constrained by weak fundamentals. U.S. cotton exports show modest strength but continue to trail Brazil, signaling a loss in global market share. Consumption remains sluggish, with reduced forward sales and mills delaying pricing, suggesting bearish sentiment. The market faces continued pressure, and U.S. acreage reductions may become a lasting trend. Read the full commentary from Dr. O.A. Cleveland here.

June 9: Current Cotton Trading Range Akin to ‘Watching Paint Dry’

Summary: Despite ongoing bearish sentiment and weak demand, some market watchers are cautiously optimistic about a rise in December cotton futures. Current trading remains flat, with little expected movement until USDA’s July 11 report clarifies northern hemisphere plantings. Only major weather or geopolitical shocks could shift the market in the near term. While U.S. moisture conditions have improved, planting delays persist in the Southeast and Mid-South. Mills are deferring pricing, expecting further declines, while growers are urged to sell old crop near 68 cents. Long-term recovery hinges on renewed consumer demand, as cotton continues to lose market share despite targeted outreach efforts. Read the full commentary from Dr. O.A. Cleveland here.

June 16: Despite Positive USDA Report, Cotton Prices Still Can’t Catch a Break

Summary: Despite USDA’s surprisingly optimistic June supply-demand report, cotton prices fell, reflecting weak demand and market indifference. Futures remained in narrow trading ranges, with July settling at 65.36 cents and December at 67.84. USDA cut U.S. production by 500,000 bales and boosted exports, reducing 2025-26 ending stocks by 900,000 bales — bullish on paper. However, stagnant global consumption and rising Chinese and Brazilian output offset any upward momentum. The market’s bearish tone persists, with mills delaying pricing and technicals suggesting further downside. Still, it’s early in the season, and improved seed genetics leave room for a late-year rebound if weather or yields shift dramatically. Read the full commentary from Dr. O.A. Cleveland here.

June 28: 70 Cent Cotton Is Within Reach

Summary: Cotton futures markets improved as the old July contract expired, allowing December futures to rise toward the 70-cent level, with potential to reach 75 cents if production issues persist. However, weak global demand, especially at the retail level, limits sustained price increases. The market is closely watching Brazil’s large crop, the shrinking U.S. crop, and varying crop conditions in China, India, and Pakistan. U.S. planted acreage is projected around 9.3 million acres, possibly yielding 13–13.5 million bales. Despite recent bullish trends, falling open interest and stagnant demand suggest upward price movement will be difficult. Consumer confidence in cotton remains low. Read the full commentary from Dr. O.A. Cleveland here.