May 2025 Cotton Market Recap: Expert Analysis From Dr. O.A. Cleveland

By Cotton Grower Staff|May 27, 2025

Dr. O.A. Cleveland, professor emeritus of Agricultural Economics at Mississippi State University, brings more than 50 years of experience in commodities to his role as a trusted voice in the cotton industry. As an advisor, analyst, and consultant to many of the world’s top cotton organizations, his insights have guided growers and traders alike. For over 20 years, Dr. Cleveland has also delivered weekly market commentary to Cotton Grower readers. Now, to help you stay informed at a glance, we’re introducing a monthly recap featuring key takeaways from his weekly columns. Below are highlights from May 2025, with links to the full articles:

May 5: Outside Events Push Cotton Prices Closer to 70 Cents

Summary: Cotton prices edged closer to 70 cents, supported by positive economic news and optimism surrounding U.S. tariff policy. The December contract settled at 69.71 cents, after recovering from earlier losses, while the July contract ended at 68.41 cents, nearing the key 69-cent resistance level. Export sales were slightly above expectations, driven by Southeast Asian demand, though annual exports remain behind last year’s pace. Concerns persist about slowing shipments and weaker forward sales, especially to China. Moisture conditions in the Southwest remain a key factor for crop yield and prices. Market activity is expected to remain within narrow trading ranges pending further USDA updates. Read the full commentary from Dr. O.A. Cleveland here.

May 11: Seesaw Cotton Pricing Continues

Summary: Cotton prices remain range-bound, with the July contract fluctuating between the mid-68s and low 66s, settling at 66.61 cents. The December contract neared 70 cents but settled at 68.67 cents, still seeking a push to 71.50 cents — likely requiring weather disruptions to materialize. U.S. export shipments are strong, though overall sales are slightly below last year’s levels. China remains a potential wildcard; a trade deal could sharply boost prices. Meanwhile, the upcoming USDA report is expected to show a smaller U.S. crop and rising carryover, with global consumption flat. Markets await clearer direction, likely from the June USDA update or trade developments. Read the full commentary from Dr. O.A. Cleveland here.

May 19: Is There Light at the End of Cotton’s Tunnel?

Summary: Despite persistent low prices and bearish supply-demand fundamentals, the cotton market sees glimmers of hope amid improving economic conditions. Positive consumer income trends may boost apparel demand by 2026. USDA’s May report projects slightly higher U.S. production and increased exports for 2025-26 but also rising ending stocks, signaling continued price pressure. Cotton futures for July and December remain weak, with little near-term upside unless adverse weather or trade events intervene. While a 75-cent price target remains possible, it’s increasingly unlikely without a significant shift in fundamentals. Overall, cotton must navigate continued weak demand and ample global supply before meaningful price recovery. Read the full commentary from Dr. O.A. Cleveland here.

May 26: Price Resistance Continues to Cap Chances of Cotton Rally

Summary: Cotton prices remain capped by strong resistance around 69–70 cents, with limited demand and ample supply keeping the market in a narrow trading range. Despite some planting delays in the U.S., India, and China, the crop outlook remains stable, and futures prices reflect adequate moisture and growing conditions. Mills continue to delay price fixations, suggesting weak demand, which has slowed both sales and shipments. On-call sales patterns, indicative of sluggish mill activity, signal continued price pressure. Unless demand improves or weather significantly disrupts planting, prices are unlikely to rally. This trend may extend into the 2025–26 season, limiting long-term price upside. Read the full commentary from Dr. O.A. Cleveland here.