Cotton’s Cycle Needs Some TLC – and A Good Push
June 20, 2025 Life, as we know it, is made up of multiple certainties.
The sun will rise in the morning and set in the evening.
The earth will take a 365-day trip around the sun (with an extra day every four years, just because).
There are 24 hours in a day and seven days in a week (unless you’re a Beatles fan, then apparently there are eight).
The SEC will always be in contention for national championships (okay, maybe not always, but it sure seems like it).
And, in the cotton world, the market always runs in a relatively predictable cycle. Until recently.
Cotton’s cycle has often been described as the face of a clock. High prices and profitability at 12, low prices and some struggles at 6, and everything else either concerning or reassuring on the way down and back up. In my years in this industry, the pattern has always seemed consistent. Don’t get too comfortable at the top and don’t fret at the bottom too long. Change is always coming. Just give it a little time.
I’m well aware that some cycles have taken longer than others, and I’ve seen some that happen fast enough to make your head spin. Yet based on the past several years, it seems like today’s cotton cycle has lost a few ticks or misplaced a few tocks on its downward swing with little positive traction to be had to start back up.
It’s frustrating and concerning, with the impact and repercussions of today’s market conditions touching every single segment of the industry. And the maddening part is there’s not one single thing to point to as the primary reason. Take your pick: China, COVID, drought, hurricanes, Brazil, high input prices, depressed market prices, inflation, no new Farm Bill, a tattered safety net, low demand, supply chain woes, tariffs, polyester, and on and on and so forth.
As we entered the 2025 planting season, all projections pointed to fewer than 10 million U.S. cotton acres. As planting progressed (as of this writing), we appear to be trending a bit lower than anticipated due to prolonged rainy conditions driving growers to other crops or prevented planting. No surprise, considering all of the headwinds impacting this year’s market. During this year’s winter meetings, I talked with growers, consultants, economists and other cotton experts to try to gauge their opinions about this year’s crop. Everyone had (and still has) questions and concerns.
Maybe the best way I can describe it is unenthusiastically optimistic. Cotton growers, as always, grow cotton. It’s what they do. But some alternatives may prove more appealing this year, and that’s understandable.
The cotton industry is well known for having one another’s back. That’ll be especially important this year. And somewhere along the way, hopefully, we’ll be able to find a way(s) to kick cotton’s cycle back in gear, headed once more toward 12.
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