Lincoln Slides Through This Round, but Can She Do it Again?
June 9, 2010 Senate Agriculture Committee Chairwoman Blanche Lincoln narrowly escaped a devastating, humiliating loss last night – not for only Arkansas Democrats, but for national Democrats, as well.
With 2,383 of 2,388 precincts reporting by 10 a.m. CDT this morning, Lincoln had received 133,897 votes, while her challenger, Arkansas Lt. Governor Bill Halter, received about 10,000 less. Polls had Halter even to slightly ahead going into the election.
Now the real battle begins and Lincoln is in an extremely difficult position. Lincoln will be remembered for tiptoeing around for months before casting the 60th and deciding vote for the Senate version of the federal health care bill. Whether she is remembered fondly or vilified is a matter open for debate that will be settled in November when she meets Republican nominee John Boozman. Polls have given Boozman a double-digit lead since he tossed his hat into the ring earlier this year. Some polls have him leading by more than 20 percentage points, although that will not hold.
Here is Lincoln’s dilemma: To defeat Halter, she embraced President Barack Obama, but the scale-tipper, I believe, was the endorsement of former President Bill Clinton. Clinton once again proved that he is one of the most influential power brokers in American history. To have any chance of defeating Boozman, she is going to have to figure out a way to distance herself from Obama this time – John McCain carried Arkansas by nearly 20 points in the presidential election of 2008. Obama’s endorsement will hurt rather than help in the general election. Can Lincoln cuddle up to Obama to win the Democratic primary, then shove him aside in the general election to defeat Boozman? Doubtful. Bill Clinton could make that work, but Lincoln is no Bill Clinton.
What Lincoln proved, even in victory last night, is that it’s almost impossible to stake out the middle ground these days. She was pounded from the right for that 60th healthcare vote last winter; she was pounded from the left for being pro-Wall Street.
I believe Lincoln has been an excellent Ag Committee chairwoman, but when we ran a Cotton247.com story on her problems earlier this year, even that drew grower comments that were polls apart.
“She can stay in Washington as far as I am concerned. She has not listened to the desires of the Arkansas voters. She is all about power for the Democrats. She votes entirely along party lines. She is in Washington to vote the will of the majority of the people of Arkansas,” said one of our readers.
Said another: “I’m a life-long Republican, but I think Blanche has always done a great job of representing Arkansas and standing up for U.S. agriculture. If we lose her, Arkansas loses. These tea-party bozos and single-issue healthcare voters are losing sight of the big picture. When you get a good one, you need to worry less about what party they’re in and more about how to keep them there. Blanche is doing a great job, and the things I disagree with her on are far outweighed by the things she’s done for our state, our industry and our nation.”
Frankly, I think Lincoln is done. You can bet the cotton farm that Boozman is going to successfully tie her to not only Obama, but Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid as well. In the red states – and Arkansas is a red state – they are viewed as lower than rattlesnakes. But, again, the wild card is Bill Clinton. Can Clinton keep the liberals who supported Halter in the fold? Or will they simply stay home? The conservative Democrats who voted for her just to make sure Halter went down will most likely turn out, but I believe they’ll put the checkmark next to Boozman’s name this time. Add those votes to what will undoubtedly be a heavy turnout by Republicans, and Lincoln and Clinton can’t cover the number.
I believe she’d be headed back to Washington as Ag Chairman in 2011 if she’d just stayed away from that 60th vote. Lincoln swore up and down that she was simply voting “yea” to bring the matter to debate. I buy that – I do. But after the House voted to approve the Senate bill after what I think was shameless manipulation, I can honestly say she did it to herself.
And that’s a shame.
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