Cotton Upswing to Carry Into Next Year
May 11, 2010 By Elizabeth Campbell
Bloomberg
Cotton production in the U.S. will rise 37 percent in the next marketing year amid an increase in harvested acreage and “unusually favorable” soil moisture in Texas, the biggest fiber-growing state, the government said.
Output will rise to 16.7 million bales in the year that begins Aug. 1, from 12.2 million bales in the current season, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today in a report. That’s higher than a preliminary forecast in February and would be the biggest harvest in three years. A bale weighs 480 pounds, or 218 kilograms.
“This year we’re looking at low abandonment, and that means a lot more acres are going to be harvested,” Sharon Johnson, a senior analyst at First Capitol Group LLC in Atlanta, said before the report. Global production will also climb, she said.
Acreage will be 10.5 million, up 15 percent from this season, reiterating the result of a planting intentions survey released in March, the USDA said. About 7 percent of the acres will be abandoned, down from the 10-year average of 11 percent, due to “unusually favorable soil moisture in Texas,” the agency said.
The U.S., the world’s largest cotton supplier, may export 13.5 million bales next year, up 13 percent from 12 million in the year ending in July, the USDA said. Stockpiles at the end of next season will be 3 million bales, the lowest in 15 years, the agency said.
“Stocks are going to be sort of tight and scarce,” said Carl Anderson, a cotton economist at Texas A&M University in College Station. “Foreign countries are going to need the U.S.”
Global stockpiles may fall to 50.1 million bales from an estimated 52.8 million at the end of July, as consumption rises in countries including China, the world’s largest user, the USDA said.
World output will reach 113.9 million bales, up from 102.9 million bales in the current marketing year, the agency estimated. World consumption may rise to 119.1 million bales next season from an estimated 115.9 million, the USDA said.
Cotton futures for July delivery rose 0.33 cent, or 0.4 percent, to 81.04 cents a pound yesterday on ICE Futures U.S. in New York. The price has climbed 35 percent in the past year.
(Story found in original format here.)
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