There Are Sunny Times Ahead for U.S. Agriculture
December 9, 2010 If the research of internationally renowned author Joel Kotkin is accurate, agriculture will be a growth industry in the United States for the next 40 years. Kotkin, who is well known for his recently published book, “The Next Hundred Million, America in 2050,” recently visited Lubbock to deliver a lecture on his outlook for North America in 2050 as part of Texas Tech University’s Presidential Lecture & Performance Series on Dec. 1st.
After analyzing data from various sources (including the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Dept. of Agriculture), Kotkin came to the conclusion that that the United States is the only advanced country with growing population. But population growth means growing enough food, fiber and fuel to provide for 400 million people by the year 2050–meaning the country will add 100 million people in the next four decades.
A young and growing population, available arable land, and entrepreneurial spirit are some of the unique advantages of the United States–advantages not found even in developing nations such as China. For instance, the labor force in the United States (people aged 15 to 64 years) will increase 42 percent between 2000 and 2050, while China’s labor force will grow by only 10 percent. In fact, the percentage of senior citizens (over the age of 65) will decrease to 15 percent of the total U.S. population in 2020; it was about 20 percent in 2000.
In addition, there is 1.3 times more arable land in the United States than there is in China, and the amount of fresh water resources per capita is four times that of Asia. Per-capita consumption of food is already high in the United States and will only increase.
Karl Marx once said, “The bourgeoisie has subjected the country to the rule of the towns. It has created enormous cities, has greatly increased the urban population as compared with the rural, and has thus rescued a considerable part of the population from the idiocy of rural life.”
Kotkin contends that the quote doesn’t apply to current U.S. society. Given the advancements in technology, Kotkin said, “a farmer in rural area is as top as a trader in Chicago.”
That view of rural life is a major positive for the U.S. agriculture industry. People’s attitude about rural life is changing, Kotkin believes, adding that 35 percent of Americans now say they would prefer to live in the country rather than the city.
People are flocking to those states that have agriculture, fuel and an emerging manufacturing industry, including Texas and North Carolina. In fact, Texas, the top cotton-producing state, will have the largest population in country in 30 years. Within the next 10 years, Texas will replace California as the leader in high-tech jobs.
Referring to the U.S. trade surplus in agriculture, Kotkin says that energy, food and fiber are the most promising industries in the future. His belief that technology is a great equalizer bodes well for the agriculture industry because it enables rural people to stay on the cutting edge by using electronic gadgets.
When asked where growth opportunities will be in 2011, National Public Radio’s Senior Business Editor Marilyn Geewax said last week that growth will come from the renewable energy, organic and agriculture sectors. The message delivered in Kotkin’s lecture is that as long as the U.S. agriculture industry keeps its focus on innovation, it will continue to be a world leader and has a positive outlook for the next four decades.
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