The International Cotton Advisory Committee has released its latest projections for the 2010-11 global cotton market. The release reads as follows:
World cotton area is expected to increase by 8 percent to 32.6 million hectares in 2010-11, driven by a significant rise in cotton prices during 2009-10, coinciding with a loss of competitiveness by major alternative crops and improved planting conditions in some areas. The expansion in cotton area expected in 2010-11 will be driven by the United States.
Assuming average weather, the world average yield is forecast to increase by 4 percent to 759 kg/ha. World cotton production is projected up by 12 percent to 24.7 million tons.
World cotton mill use is expected to continue to recover in 2010-11, growing by 2 percent to 24.6 million tons, driven by continued improvement in global economic growth, but limited by high cotton prices.
World cotton trade is expected to increase slightly to 7.6 million tons. Chinese imports are forecast to grow by 21 percent to 2.4 million tons. After dropping by 16 percent in 2009-10, global cotton ending stocks are expected to increase by 2 percent in 2010-11, to 10.5 million tons.
The Secretariat of the ICAC forecasts a 2010-11 season-average Cotlook A Index of 82 cents per pound, with a 95 percent confidence interval ranging from 70 to 96 cents per pound.
However, major uncertainties pose substantial downward risks to this forecast. The Secretariat of the ICAC believes that the 2010-11 season-average Cotlook A Index is more
likely to be within the range of 70 to 82 cents per pound.
Source: International Cotton Advisory Committee
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