The week ending Friday, October 16 saw ICE cotton futures trade flat-to-higher, then downshift, then finish in a narrower, flatter pattern. The nearby Dec ’26 contract settled Friday at 80.00 cents per pound. Chinese cotton prices were mostly higher this week while the A-Index of world cotton prices was mixed.
Other agricultural futures followed somewhat similar paths for the week ending Thursday, October 15. CBOT corn and soybean futures, as well as KC wheat futures, all variously traded sideways. WTI oil futures trended upward across the week. The U.S. dollar index followed a widely gyrating sideways pattern across the week.
Cotton-focused news this week included USDA NASS’s publication of their regular weekly rates of boll opening and harvesting, which were -1% and +2%, respectively, from their five-year averages, through October 11. Over the same time frame, the aggregate U.S. cotton crop condition showed 34% in the Good-Excellent category with another 30% rated Fair. The distribution of cotton crop condition varied across different regions of Texas (click here and scroll down for the regional descriptions). Rains fell over various parts of the Cotton Belt this week, probably affecting (negatively) grades more than anything else.
Current marketing year net export sales of Upland cotton for the week ending October 1 were 146,900 running bales of Upland cotton. This is a decline from the previous week, as well as a weak resulting level. Weekly U.S. cotton export shipments remained below USDA’s export target level for the 2026/27 marketing year. Reported demand indicators included a pick-up in spot trading, very light to moderate demand, and light to moderate supplies, all depending on the region. South Texas, for example, reported active spot trading and moderate supplies, which makes seasonal sense.
Through Thursday, October 15, the daily shifts in ICE cotton open interest were higher compared to the previous day. The most recent Tuesday speculative snapshot (represented by the CFTC’s CIT “Supplemental” report for October 13) reflected mixed positioning. Specifically, there were 3,665 fewer (liquidated) hedge fund longs, week over week. This outweighed the 1.185 fewer (covered) hedge fund shorts as well as the 813-contract expansion of the index fund net long position, all compared to last week.
The dynamics of ICE cotton futures may previously have been a wet blanket on the market, but one that appears to be lifting. The recently falling certified stock levels could reflect improving commercial demand for U.S. cotton. And while unfixed call sales were at a relatively low level earlier in 2026 (perhaps reflecting the cautionary buying on the demand side) the level of unfixed call sales has risen past the level of unfixed call purchases. The former reflects buying (or potential buying) of cotton futures by mills, i.e., a bullish indicator.
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