CAI Lowers Its Estimate of India's Cotton Output

By Jim.Robinson|December 22, 2010

The Cotton Association of India (CAI), which has 446 members spanning the entire cotton value chain, released its new estimate for the 2010/11 cotton season on Dec. 18. This November report reflects a lower total than the October version CAI had released, with the new estimate of 34.75 million bales (170 kg) nearly a million bales lower than the previous estimate of 35.7 million.

The estimate was revised downward due to unseasonal rains in the cotton-growing zones in India throughout November, particularly floods in Andhra Pradesh, which caused experts to drop their expectations for the state from 6.55 million bales to 6 million. The central zone (which comprises of the states of Gujarat, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh) is estimated to have lost 300,000 bales, bringing the total loss from the Central Zone and Andhra Pradesh to 850,000 bales.

Nonetheless, despite the lowered totals, CAI’s estimate of 34.75 million bales is still higher than the Cotton Advisory Board’s (CAB) estimate of 32.5 million bales. Government officials, as they try to decide how much cotton to approve for export, will base their decision based on the CAB data.

In addition to the lowered estimate, spinning mills are also concerned about the loss in quality due to rainfall and flooding. One manager who is in charge of cotton purchasing for a large textile mill group told Cotton International that the quality loss could be as high as 10 percent