Shurley: Price Making Adjustments, Searching for Next Direction
June 15, 2026 After peaking at near 88 cents, prices (Dec futures) have since lost roughly 13% and now stand in the 76-cent area. Price tried to stabilize around 80 cents, but additional weakness resulted in further losses.
I see this as the market simply adjusting to weakening factors (which we will discuss) and becoming less certain (a little more uneasy) about the outlook. Not all is lost but, for now, the market has adjusted its sights away from 80-85 cents.
The 75-cent area should hold unless the outlook becomes more bearish. A return to 80-85 cents is possible if factors return more bullish.
The first crop progress and conditions report was released last week. As of June 7, the crop was 77% planted—on par with average and slightly ahead of last year. As of June 7, planting was equal to or ahead of average in 10 of 15 states.
As of June 7, the crop is rated 53% good to excellent compared to 49% last year. Texas is 21% poor to very poor and Tennessee 19%.
After weeks and months of drought and concern, any good or improving crop condition news may act to weaken prices. The market will keep an eye on the weather and crop progress conditions.
USDA’s monthly production and supply/demand estimates for June contained no major surprises. Overall, I consider the numbers to be supportive—I see nothing that should necessarily be negative enough to send prices lower.
The little uptick we’ve had in price may be partly a reaction to the numbers. The following is a summary of the main points:
- US exports for the 2025 crop marketing year that ends July 31 were increased 200,000 bales to 12.2 million bales.
- 2025 crop year exports for Brazil were also increased.
- The projections for the 2026 US crop were unchanged from the May report. The first USDA estimate of actual acres planted will be released on June 30, and this will be used for the July and subsequent numbers.
- World Use/demand for the 2026 crop year was increased very slightly compared to the May estimate.
- China’s Use for 2026 was raised by ½ million bales. Production and imports were unchanged.
- 2026 Use was revised down 200,000 bales each for Pakistan and Bangladesh.
The run-up to 88 cents was largely predicated on the likelihood of a drought-reduced US crop. It was also a function of bullish speculative buying. Looking forward, there are many unknowns:
– US acres and weather-related crop conditions and yield.
– Drought situation has improved, but crop has a long way to go.
– Geopolitical issues with Iran and China.
– World demand/use—can it improve? Improvement has been slow. Can demand grow at an increasing rate?
– US exports and market share? Exports are projected to increase by only 100,000 bales for 2026. That may not be enough to pull prices back up if the crop looks to be much improved.
Exports have recently been very good. Thus, the reason USDA increased the projection for this marketing year. For the past 4 reporting weeks, exports have averaged 318,000 bales per week. To reach the USDA revised projection of 12.2 million bales for the 2025 crop marketing year ending July 31, exports need to average 296,000 bales per week.
Prices (Dec futures) are now looking for a comfortable landing spot. That could be in the current 76-cent neighborhood. Any further weakness is likely to test 73 cents. Let’s certainly hope we don’t go there.
Any future price improvement will likely be challenged at both 80 and 85 cents. So, these levels become goals or targets for the market—and considerations for the grower if looking for sell opportunities.
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