No Surprises from the USDA
March 31, 2010 Pretty much as expected, on March 31, USDA projected all cotton plantings for 2010 to total 10.5 million acres, up 15 percent from last year. Upland acreage is expected to total 10.3 million acres, up 15 percent, while Pima acreage is expected to reach 190,000, up 34 percent.
The complete report, plus a state-by-state breakdown, is available on our Cotton247 website at www.cotton247.com/acreage.
By comparison, USDA says corn growers will plant 88.8 million acres this year – up 3 percent over last year – and soybean growers are expected to plant 78.1 million acres – up less than 1 percent over last year.
Obviously price is the driver for the increased cotton acreage. At planting last year, the ICE December 2009 futures contract was less than 50 cents per pound, and now December 2010 is around 75 cents. By comparison, at planting last year, corn futures were around $4.75 per bushel, and soybeans were over $10. This year, corn is around $3.80, and soybeans are near $9.25.
Texas remains the beast with 5.6 million acres, up 12 percent over last year. In 2009, Texas planted 5 million.
Texas, it’s said often, stays in cotton due to few other options, and there is some merit to that. But what’s left out is that Texas’ yields have increased from around 400 pounds per acre to over 800. It’s not uncommon to see yields reach 3 to 4 bales when irrigated. The Lone Star state also produces some of the highest-quality Upland cotton in the country.
The biggest percentage increases will come in South Carolina (up 52 percent), North Carolina (up 44 percent) and California (up 39 percent).
Louisiana will again reduce acreage, falling from a historic low of 230,000 acres in 2009, to 200,000 this year, down 13 percent. Other Mid-South states will show increased to flat acreage in 2010: Arkansas is expected to stay even at 520,000 acres, Mississippi will increase acreage from 305,000 acres to 340,000; Tennessee will plant 380,000, up from 300,000, and Missouri will go from 272,000 to 290,000.
As an area, the Southeast will see a significant increase – Alabama will increase acreage from 255,000 acres to 360,000, Georgia from 1 million to 1.15 million, North Carolina from 375,000 to 540,000, South Carolina from 115,000 to 175,000, Virginia from 64,000 to 75,000, and Florida from 82,000 to 90,000.
In the Far West, California will again lead in both Upland and Pima acreage, with growers expected to plant 100,000 acres of Upland and 165,000 in Pima, for a total of 265,000, up from 190,000 in 2009.
Traditionally, Mississippi and Georgia battled each other for second place in total acreage behind Texas, with both planting around 1.5 million acres. But Mississippi has been able to take more advantage of the grain-price explosion. This year, Mississippi’s soybean acreage will remain flat at 2.16 million acres, while corn acreage will increase 10 percent to 800,000 acres.
Soybeans remain the major player in these two states. New crop prices for soybeans ranged from $8.70 to $9 – still very profitable. But the increase in corn acres in Mississippi was somewhat of a surprise. New crop prices range from $3.35 to $3.55, depending on delivery point – far less profitable than a year ago. It had been anticipated that Mississippi growers would reduce corn acreage in favor of cotton, due to better prices and better rotational opportunities. It was also anticipated that after Mississippi reportedly abandoned over 100,000 acres of soybeans last year, growers would take advantage of the increase in cotton prices to spread risk. (On the morning of the report at the open on the Chicago Board of Trade, November soybeans were $9.07, down 17; December corn was at $3.77 down 7.)
As an aside, Arkansas growers will increase rice plantings from 1.26 million in 2009 to 2010, Mississippi’s acreage will increase from 245,000 to 270,000, and Louisiana will rise from 415,000 to 470,00.
Georgia’s soybean acreage will drop significantly from 470,000 acres in 2009, to 320,000 acres this year. Peanuts are a profitable crop for Georgia growers, and as a legume, soybeans share common diseases, reducing rotational opportunities. Georgia’s peanut acreage will increase from 510,000 acres in 2009, to 540,000 this year. Corn acreage will drop from 420,000 acres in 2009, to 380,000 this year.
A cotton/corn rotation has been very good for Georgia, and has become even more important due to the dramatic increase in glyphosate-resistant Palmer amaranth. Atrazine used in corn is an effective herbicide on Palmer amaranth, resulting in greater opportunities for a cotton/corn rotation.
For a complete listing of all surveys, plus state-by-state breakdowns, click here.
GET THE NEWSLETTER TODAY!
