USDA has released its November 2023 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Here’s this month’s summary for cotton:
The 2023/24 U.S. cotton balance sheet shows slightly lower consumption but higher production and ending stocks this month. Production is 273,000 bales higher, at 13.1 million bales, as lower production in Texas is more than offset elsewhere. Domestic mill use is 100,000 bales lower, reflecting the pace of recent consumption, and exports are unchanged, leaving ending stocks 400,000 bales higher at 3.2 million bales or 22.5 percent of use.
The 2023/24 season-average price for upland cotton is reduced 3 cents this month to 77 cents per pound.
This month’s 2023/24 global cotton balance sheet includes lower consumption, but higher production and stocks. Beginning stocks are 200,000 bales higher largely due to a 300,000-bale increase in India’s 2022/23 production based on data from their Committee on Cotton Production and Consumption. The global production forecast for 2023/24 is 850,000 bales higher this month as larger expected crops in Afghanistan, the United States, Argentina, and Paraguay offset reductions in Spain and Mexico. Global consumption is 500,000 bales lower, with cuts for Vietnam, Turkey, and the United States.
World trade is little changed from the previous month despite a 500,000-bale increase in China’s projected imports, as declines for Vietnam, Turkey, Korea, and Thailand are largely offsetting. At 81.5 million bales, 2023/24 global cotton ending stocks are projected 1.6 million bales higher than in October. China accounts for nearly one-third of this increase, as higher imports are largely expected to be for the State Reserve.
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