Shurley: USDA Acreage Projection Hasn’t Dampened Cotton Market
April 2, 2026 Growers say they intend to plant 9.64 million acres this year—up 3.85% from last year (USDA Prospective Plantings, March 31, 2026). This number is higher than what was anticipated. Question—will it matter? There are several other factors that will ultimately come into play as we move forward.
The Prospective Plantings report is based on surveys conducted the first 2 weeks of March, asking farmers what they “intend” to plant. Obviously, the response depends on the perception of current conditions at the time and on what’s expected to happen/not happen in the future.
In February, the National Cotton Council projection was 8.99 million acres. Later that month, the projection by USDA at their AOF (Agricultural Outlook Forum) was 9.4 million acres. I think most pre-report expectations were that planting intentions would be about the same as last year.
New crop (Dec) futures began improving in early March. This could have contributed to a little more optimistic outlook during the survey period. Cotton price has continued to improve, peaking at over 75 cents. The larger-than-anticipated planting intentions number could eventually dampen the market (the first estimate of actual acres planted will not be released until June 30)—but the reaction has thus far not been overly negative despite early jitters.
Corn and soybean prices have improved since lows back in winter. Peanut contracts are lower than last year. In cotton-producing states, Prospective Plantings forecast lower peanut acres. In the 9 states expecting increased cotton acres, corn is expected to be down in 4, soybeans down in 3. Of the 11 states producing both cotton and peanuts, peanuts acres are expected to be down in 10 states.
This year’s actual acres planted compared to planting intentions is subject to great uncertainty. If cotton price remains improved, will this shift more acres? Much of the cotton-growing area is experiencing drought, some severe. As we get nearer to planting time, will this improve? If not, what? Are planting intentions numbers overstated or could acres shift to cheaper crops due to high fuel prices and lack of fertilizer supply? The market will pay attention to these factors that will impact acres.
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