Lincoln Re-election Faces Trouble
January 26, 2010 As 2010 begins, the numbers for Democrat Sen. Blanche Lincoln, Chairman of the Senate Ag Committee, are pretty much the same as last year’s while she prepares to face Arkansas voters in November. Not good.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in Arkansas shows Lincoln’s support for reelection at 38 percent or 39 percent no matter which of four potential Republican challengers she is matched against. In surveys last September and December, her support was between 39 percent and 41 percent in these match-ups.
State Senator Gilbert Baker leads Lincoln by 12 percent, and State Senate Minority Leader Kim Hendren holds an eight-point edge over Lincoln. Curtis Coleman, a private businessman, and Tom Cox, head of the Arkansas T.E.A. Party, both lead her by 10 points. In reality, however, the numbers reflect very little about the challengers and are best viewed as a referendum on Lincoln herself.
The two-term senator, who was reelected with 54 percent of the vote in 2004, appears more vulnerable because of her visible and pivotal role in the Senate debate over health care. Lincoln was the last Democrat to vote for allowing the debate to formally begin, but she took a lower profile in the vote for final passage.
Just 35 percent of Arkansas voters favor the health care plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats. Sixty percent are opposed.
If the race remains a referendum on Lincoln and the performance of the Democratic leadership in Washington, it could remain a difficult race for her. If that happens, Lincoln will have to hope for a stronger economy and an improved environment for Democrats nationally. However, if the race becomes a choice between Lincoln and the eventual Republican candidate, the dynamic could be quite different.
Eighteen percent of Arkansas voters have a “very favorable” opinion of Lincoln, while 41 percent view her “very unfavorably.” Those numbers are down from a month ago and are considerably weaker than they were earlier. In September, 26 percent offered a “very favorable” opinion and 28 percent said “very unfavorable.”
Arkansas voters will get a chance to interact with Lincoln at the Mid-South Farm & Gin Show at the Cook Convention Center, Memphis, Tennessee, Saturday, February 27.
The Senator will tour the show Saturday afternoon. “We are honored to welcome Senator Lincoln to the Show,” said Timothy Price, show manager. “This is a critical year for farmers. Challenged by a late, wet harvest, the emergence of herbicide resistance and a general uncertainty about the future, farmers are anxious to hear from someone who can provide insight into what the future may hold.”
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