Numbers Never Lie

They say numbers never lie. But in this case, they may stretch actuality quite a bit, and that is my disclaimer.

On June 19, the Department of Justice gave final blessings to Monsanto’s purchase of Delta and Pine Land and divestiture of Stoneville Pedigreed Seed Co. With the exception of Bayer’s acquisition of Stoneville — which even I suspected — the rest gave me more of a shock than if I had licked my finger and stuck it in a light socket.

The numbers I am about to use are based on USDA’s 2006 actual market share. My double-double disclaimer is that I know 2007 numbers won’t be the same as 2006, and what will happen in 2008 is pure speculation. I am going to purely speculate.

But first the facts:
• Monsanto bought D&PL and divested itself of Stoneville.
• Bayer got Stoneville, but without the NexGen varieties. (Just for the fun of it, let’s assume NexGen made up 10% of Stoneville’s 12.2% market share. That gives Stoneville an 11% share, with NexGen taking 1.2%.)
• Americot bought the NexGen lines.
• And Syngenta got 43 D&PL lines that have Syngenta’s VipCot transgenic insect-resistant trait.
Now comes the unadulterated speculation: Basing everything on the 2006 USDA data, here’s what the 2008 market could look like:
• D&PL will remain steady with a 51% market share.
• Bayer, with Stoneville added to FiberMax’s share of 26.7%, will have almost 38% of the market.
• Americot moves up to a 6% share.
• As for Syngenta’s D&PL varieties, they will not apply at the moment.

I guess the biggest question to come out of all this is whether we will have less competition (and there are plenty of critics who say we will), more competition, or equal competition? Based on some serious suppositions, you could make the prima facia case that it leans toward more competition. I guess we’ll know for sure if and when Syngenta decides to become a part of my pretty pie charts.

Do my numbers lie? Well, I will end by saying this: Someone in another life called me a habitual liar. I countered by saying, I am not a habitual liar, I am just habitually wrong. There is a difference.

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