Since Pakistan achieved independence in 1947, it produced some 1 million 170-kg bales of cotton. In its first official growing year, the country notched an average yield of 163 kg per hectare (Ha), but had a very small spinning capacity, consuming just 75,000 bales of cotton.
A look at the five-year trends in acreage, production and yield from 1947 to 2005 demonstrates a steady growth. During the 1991/92 season, production reached nearly 12.7 million bales, and then in 2004/05, an all-time production high of 14.3 million bales was achieved, with an average yield of 740 kg per Ha. Otherwise, Pakistan’s annual average production has lingered around 10 million bales per year since 1990. Meanwhile, however, Pakistan’s cotton consumption is estimated at around 15 million bales.
Production, as measured by the five-year moving averages, has increased largely as a result of area expansion. Yields have also increased steadily, but the general picture is one of fluctuation due to lack of pure seeds, availability of water, and most importantly, the weather conditions.
In Pakistan’s Fields And Mills
There are two types of cotton growers: those with medium to high yields using modern inputs, and those who grow cotton on poorly managed bases. This phenomenon exists despite cotton maximization programs in Punjab and Sindh.
The crop calendar is very tight, as many small-holding farmers grow cotton followed by wheat. In order to obtain good yields of wheat, a quick turnaround is required after cotton in both Sindh and Punjab. It is questionable whether adequate power or suitable implements are available to achieve good results.
During the last decade, Pakistan’s annual average cotton production has remained steady at around 10 million bales per year, except during the cotton season of 2004/05 when exceptionally better weather increased Pakistan’s production to 14.5 million bales. In the last six years (2001/02 to 2005/06), the country has increased its spinning capacity by about 30%, whereas cotton production has not matched it. There is consistency in the growth of Pakistan’s mill consumption, but farm production is quite erratic. Presently, Pakistan is importing about 2.5 million 480-lb. bales annually to meet local mill requirements.
In the coming years, the gap between consumption and production is likely to increase, resulting in an increase of cotton imports.
Optimism In Production
Pakistan has good potential for increasing its cotton production. It can increase its area in cotton from the present level of 3 million Ha to 4 million Ha by cultivating more virgin lands in Balochistan and D I Khan in NWFP. By doing so, Pakistan can increase its productivity by 25% and production from 40% to 50% to the level of 23 to 24 million bales per year. This would also allow Pakistan to become a net cotton exporting country after by the year 2010.
To achieve this target, however, Pakistan would have to go for genetically modified (GM)/hybrid technology in seed breeding, the latest technologies in agronomics, pest management, farm management, irrigation, ginning machinery standards, cotton standardization, marketing and so forth. By increasing its yield, Pakistan would be able to further reduce its cost of production (which is presently around $1.20 (USD)/kg of lint) to a competitive level in world trade.
The Domestic Balance
Pakistan’s domestic cotton consumption is steadily increasing, and is now estimated between 15.5 million and 16 million 170 kg bales. To meet these domestic requirements, Pakistan is forced to import some 3 million local-weight bales. To stay competitive in world cotton and textile markets, Pakistan has to enhance its cotton production at least to the level of its domestic requirements, and should take immediate steps toward the introduction of GM technology in cotton to increase its seasonal cotton production, which is lagging far behind its domestic requirements.
Pakistan’s total cotton import figure in 2006/07 is now estimated around 3 to 3.5 million local-weight bales on top of its estimated cotton production of 12 to 12.5 million local-weight bales. It is quite difficult to imagine that cotton production would increase at an equal rate, at least to match with the increase in domestic consumption. Otherwise, Pakistan’s cotton deficiency could grow to 4 to 5 million bales.
As a matter of fact, Pakistan’s spinners who have acquired enough experience and knowledge of the international market system may wish to take advantage of the favorable bargaining terms and lower buying prices of the global market.
However, there is a growing anxiety in the minds of concerned people that with a larger dependence on imported cotton, Pakistan’s textile sector may not achieve the required growth rate and may face great difficulty competing with other textile giants such as China, India and Turkey.
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