Welcome Back, Little Boy
July 29, 2009 My, oh, my. What a difference a rain makes.
This time last week, we were looking at an ICE December 2009 futures contract price of 65 cents. After soaking rains on the High Plains of Texas and in India made higher yields more likely, that contract is just under 59 cents now. The ICE December 2010 contract was approaching 72 cents and is now just under 66.
One day last week, I was watching the weather radar and I could see a line of storms moving across the Plains. So I sent my friend Roger Haldenby at the Plains Cotton Growers in Lubbock an e-mail asking him if they were indeed getting what it looked like. Roger quickly shot back something like, “We’re getting a rain worth millions and millions of dollars.”
What’s turning the weather pattern in Texas for the better is the return of “The Little Boy” – or El Nino in Spanish. The El Nino weather phenomenon refers to the Christ child because it’s usually noticed first around Christmas time. An El Nino usually lasts three to eight years and is good for some, and bad for others. While Texas reaps the benefits, the El Nino phenomenon causes drought in other areas.
The opposite of El Nino is La Nina – or “The Little Girl.” The Little Girl, pretty though she may be, is not good for the western half of the U.S. The Little Girl brings with her the drought the Southwest gets and others the ideal growing conditions.
There’s more on the El Nino phenomenon’s impact on Texas cotton in this edition of CottonGrowerExtr@.
I’ve known of El Nino and La Nina weather phenomena for years and had even looked them up a time or two. But my memory being what it is (Quick. What did you eat for lunch two days ago?), I looked them up again, just out of curiosity.
I don’t know if the Little Girl, pretty though she may be, has been causing the drought in Texas for the past few years, but if she has, I’m glad to see her leave.
And welcome back, Little Boy.
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