Drought is 2022’s Big Cotton Story
December 24, 2022 For more than a decade, tales have been told about the infamous drought of 2011. So hot. So dry. So unbelievably bad that it most certainly would never be topped.
2022 rewrote the story.
From its beginnings when the rain stopped in the fall of 2021 in the Texas High Plains and the “normal” rainfall and snowpack didn’t materialize in California, the drought of 2022 crashed through the Southwest and Western Cotton Belts like a blunt instrument, leaving many growers with little more than fond year-old memories of bountiful yields.
By late October, drought conditions had spread to nearly 63% of the U.S. — making for great harvest weather but also drying down major waterways needed for commodity traffic. That’s the highest percentage of drought on record since 2012. And the jury’s still out on how these lingering conditions will impact agriculture in 2023.
There’s also a massive financial impact — not just in terms of lost or reduced production but also the residual ripple impact through the local economies in stricken areas. For example, in the Texas High Plains, one estimate shows that drought and heat impact on this year’s cotton production has cost farmers and other agricultural and local industries at least $2 billion.
Relief In Sight?
There’s hope. But it may take a while.
The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook through Jan. 31, 2023, calls for drought to persist in the Southwest, Great Plains, and Southeast — consistent with typical La Niña impacts and the seasonal precipitation outlook. Recent rains across parts of the Southern Plains have helped ease conditions a bit, but not enough to wipe the drought map clean.
“La Niña remains in control for the winter, with waning influence in the spring,” says Meteorologist John Baranick in an early November report. “That typically means a lot of clipper systems and bouts of cold air for northern areas, while leaving the south warmer and drier.
“River levels across the Mississippi River, which are at historical lows south of Cairo, IL, are likely to remain low going into the spring,” he points out. “Precipitation in the river basin does not look heavy enough to increase water levels in any significant way, partly due to the heavier precipitation occurring in snowpack across the northern states. It will take until the spring melt for any areas to release their pent-up water. And even that may be too little as the tendency for above-normal precipitation is still low during the winter months.”
During a recent Cotton Incorporated Weekly Weather Update, Eric Snodgrass, Principal Atmospheric Scientist for Nutrien, says recent weather patterns may bring some good news for California.
“We’re going to see some major precipitation coming into parts of California in the near future,” he predicts. “But from now all the way through next year, it’s all about keeping an eye on soil moisture and what our drought situation looks like. La Niña is still here. It is in control and will stay in control likely through the start of the new year. I think it would be critical to be watching from about Dec. 15 to Jan. 15 to see if we can get rid of this.
“I don’t think the drought issues we’re encountering now are going to last into spring,” he adds. “As you look out until March, we start to see models hinting La Niña really beginning to fade and better moisture events for most of the country, including the Cotton Belt.”
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