Global Food Supply
February 13, 2012 World grain production fell in the last reporting period, exacerbating a global food situation already plagued by rising prices, according to new research published by the Worldwatch Institute for its Vital Signs publication. Despite record rice and corn yields around the world, global wheat production dropped substantially enough to bring total grain output to just below 2008 levels.
Corn, wheat, and rice provide nearly two-thirds of the global human diet and serve as critical inputs for both animal feed and industrial products. The significance of these crops guarantees that a decline in production will produce ripple effects throughout the global economy, particularly as increased food prices continue to take a toll on the world’s neediest populations.
Overall, rice and wheat production have tripled since the 1960s, and corn production has quadrupled, despite global acreage of these crops increasing by only 35%.
Recent growth in agricultural production has been uneven. In many regions, irregular weather patterns such as rising temperatures, violent storms and flash flooding. In Russia, where severe drought has plagued large farming regions, overall wheat yields plunged 40% in 2010, compared to a decline of only 5% worldwide. Subsequently, Russia – the fourth largest wheat exporter in 2009 – banned all wheat exports, severely disrupting world grain markets. Poor weather took its toll elsewhere as well: El Niño in the western Pacific, for example, brought rice production down significantly in the Philippines, already the world’s largest food importer.
Rising demand for ethanol fuel, which in the United States is produced almost exclusively from corn feedstock, is having an impact on grain prices as well. About 20% of the increase in corn prices between 2007 and 2008 was due to domestic ethanol demand, says Worldwatch.
Demand for grains is also rising in countries such as China and India, where growing middle classes are adopting more diverse diets.
Farming has always been an uncertain business that depends in large part on the weather, and it could be entering an even more difficult phase, the Worldwatch report said. Less stable atmospheric conditions could be detrimental for food production. In an already fragile economy, continued volatile prices and unpredictable weather-induced shortages are sure to negatively affect both producers and consumers in developing countries.
Information was provided by the Worldwatch Institute.
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