The August 2018 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report has been released by USDA.
Here’s this month’s summary for cotton:
This month’s 2018/19 U.S. cotton forecast includes higher beginning stocks, production, exports and ending stocks relative to last month.
Production for the 2018 crop is raised 4% to 19.2 million bales, on this season’s first survey-based production forecast. NASS’s survey indicates higher abandonment, but a higher average yield compared to last month’s expectations. Beginning stocks are raised 400,000 bales due to lower-than-expected 2017/18 exports and domestic consumption, and 2018/19 exports are 500,000 bales higher, at 15.5 million bales. Ending stocks are 600,000 bales higher this month. The midpoint of the marketing-year-average price is unchanged from last month, at 75 cents per pound.
Projected world 2018/19 ending stocks are down 1% this month, due to a combination of lower beginning stocks and higher consumption offsetting higher production. Beginning stocks are reduced 450,000 bales, reflecting both lower production and higher consumption estimates for 2017/18. Production in 2018/19 is increased 400,000 bales, with higher expected crops in the United States, Argentina and Turkey offsetting reduced crops in Uzbekistan, Australia and Turkmenistan.
Consumption is raised 660,000 bales, led by a 300,000-bale increase for Pakistan, with smaller increases in Indonesia, Turkey, and other countries.