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Cotton Highlights from August WASDE Report

Cotton Highlights from August WASDE Report

The August 2018 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report has been released by USDA.

Here’s this month’s summary for cotton:

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This month’s 2018/19 U.S. cotton forecast includes higher beginning stocks, production, exports and ending stocks relative to last month.

Production for the 2018 crop is raised 4% to 19.2 million bales, on this season’s first survey-based production forecast. NASS’s survey indicates higher abandonment, but a higher average yield compared to last month’s expectations. Beginning stocks are raised 400,000 bales due to lower-than-expected 2017/18 exports and domestic consumption, and 2018/19 exports are 500,000 bales higher, at 15.5 million bales. Ending stocks are 600,000 bales higher this month. The midpoint of the marketing-year-average price is unchanged from last month, at 75 cents per pound.

Projected world 2018/19 ending stocks are down 1% this month, due to a combination of lower beginning stocks and higher consumption offsetting higher production. Beginning stocks are reduced 450,000 bales, reflecting both lower production and higher consumption estimates for 2017/18. Production in 2018/19 is increased 400,000 bales, with higher expected crops in the United States, Argentina and Turkey offsetting reduced crops in Uzbekistan, Australia and Turkmenistan.

Consumption is raised 660,000 bales, led by a 300,000-bale increase for Pakistan, with smaller increases in Indonesia, Turkey, and other countries.